853
FXUS63 KDTX 041025
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
625 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM THROUGH TOMORROW.
- PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY. DRY AIR CIRCULATING ANTICYCLONICALLY
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO SOUTEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE
FOR MODEST SURFACE WARMING TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED
HIGH BASED CUMULUS AT OUR AROUND 7.0 KFT AGL. OTHERWISE, RESIDUAL
DRY MIDLEVELS WILL PERSIST. SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS ANTICPATED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF WHAT WILL END UP BEING A 10 DAY
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SPANNING ACROSS THE END OF MAY AND BEGINNING
OF JUNE. SURFACE LOW HAS CONTINUED DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
CENTERING ITSELF NOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT STILL REMAINING
IN CONTROL LOCALLY AS THE 590DAM 500MB RIDGE IS STILL SITTING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH CANADA CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS THE RIDGE WHICH WILL REALLY JUST INCREASE THE WIND FIELD A
BIT TODAY. MOST MODELS ARE VERY DRY BUT SOME DO OFFER A FEW LOWER
CLOUDS IN THE 7KFT RANGE AT THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE OVERALL CLOUDS WITH A BOOST IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 50F WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP APPARENTT IN CHECK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUE TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WAVE TRAIN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
AND ALLOWS THE NEXT TROUGH TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY. BUT FIRST A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
MI WITH MOISTURE FUNNELING UP ALONG IT FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASE
HUMIDITY, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOSE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 18Z BRINGING A SURGE A THETA E THROUGH MID MI.
MODEL SOUNDINGS OFFER A DECENT CAP THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
HINT AT POSSIBLY BREAKING THE CAP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING THE FIRST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG (AT BEST) OF MUCAPE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED STORMS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL RISK TRYING TO
NOSE IN FROM SW LOWER MI.
AS THE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT, A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CAPE ACTUALLY
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TIES TO THE DEVELOPING
LOW. SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HIRES MODELS
POINTING TO A 03-09Z WINDOW FOR BEST COVERAGE. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
THEN DROPS THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY PASSING THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING OFFERING A BIT OF A
RECHARGE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. CAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BUT WITH POOR LAPSE RATES. SO
AFTER A POSSIBLE BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, WE COULD DEAL WITH A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS.
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER CANADA DROPPING THROUGH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BRING DRIER CONDITIONS BACK FOR SUNDAY. THE
NARROW RIDGE WILL HAVE A NEUTRAL TILT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS CREATING CHANNEL OF MOISTURE THROUGH THAT REGION
WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS DRIFTING NORTH AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY
THE NEXT TROUGH PASSING OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY
VERY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HAVE OF THE WEEK BUT NOW SUGGEST THE
APPROACHING TROUGH COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FARTHER EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WANE TODAY AS IT SHIFTS OVER
THE APPALACHIANS. IN RESPONSE, INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS ORGANIZE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TOWARDS 15-20KTS. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OFFERING THE AREA'S NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT FURTHER UPTICK IN SW WIND
OCCURS FRIDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS REACHING THE LOWER 20KT RANGE WITH
NEAR 25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE SAGINAW BAY DUE TO SHORELINE
EFFECTS. PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DAYTIME SATURDAY SHIFTS FLOW
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH WINDS WEAKENING AS NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KDK
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