400
FXUS63 KDTX 180452
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
DEEP LOW PRESSURE EXITING CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE SAGINAW VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO WANE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE MOST
PERSISTENT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN THE MBS VICINITY WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
WITH A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND MBS AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
TRACKS THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY AROUND 12Z, WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WIND TO AROUND 30 KT ENSUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND BREVITY OF ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT
CATEGORY PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE TAF. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY THE EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING TONIGHT.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* LOW FOR CROSSWIND OPERATIONS THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
DISCUSSION...
OUR STRONG JUNE UPPER WAVE CLEARLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED NOSE 130KT
JET WITH THE STRONG JUNE SURFACE LOW AROUND 990 MBS ALSO MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LIFT
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW. 12Z MODEL
SUITE IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORCING GENERALLY BETWEEN
M-59 AND M-46. THE COMPLICATING FEATURE IS THE RESIDUAL IL MCS AND
ITS AFFECTS ON THE SURROUNDING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING AND THE IMPACTS ON THE ANTICIPATED WX.
THE 12Z MODELS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS MORNING'S EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH FORCED THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OR EVEN SOUTHERN IL. A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
IL WITH SEVERAL PEAK GUSTS AROUND 50KTS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A SHORT-FUSED WIND HEADLINE MIGHT
BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE METRO DETROIT
AREA. ANTICIPATE THAT IT IS STABLE ENOUGH OVER SE MI THAT A WIND
HEADLINE WON'T BE NEEDED.
THE COMBINATION OF THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING THAT FAR SOUTH WITH
THE WARMING MID LEVELS FROM THE MCV AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION DOESN'T ALLOW MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
BUILD ANYWHERE IN OR AROUND SE MI. THE REGION WILL BE LEFT FOR THE
FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE TO DESTABILIZE THE MID LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SEE IF WE CAN HAVE ENOUGH OF A NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL
PROFILE TO ALLOW FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL OR ISOLATED WIND TO
REACH THE SURFACE. BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AS MUCAPES GET UP TO 500-100 J/KG WITH
THE 0-1KM RICHARDSON NUMBER GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 0.25 FOR SOME
POTENTIAL CONNECTION TO THE SURFACE. THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS
ARE WARRANTED BY ALSO ARE VERY CONDITIONAL ON THOSE ELEMENTS COMING
TOGETHER THIS EVENING.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN, BUT EVEN THAT THREAT
IS MORE CONDITIONAL. THE BEST FORCING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET BRINGS IN THE HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM 925-850 MBS. THIS IS ALSO
THE FAVORABLE LOCATION WHERE 3-6 HOURS OF TRAINING OF CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR AND THAT IS LIKELY TO BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THAT THREAT
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT AND WILL KEEP IT IN PLACE FOR METRO DETROIT GIVEN THE LARGE
URBAN FOOTPRINT THAT DOESN'T REQUIRE AS MUCH RAINFALL TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES.
IN THE WAKE OF OUR OVERNIGHT SYSTEM, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE CONCERN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FOR METRO
DETROIT ON SOUTH. THERE IS GOOD WIND IN THE COLUMN WITH AROUND 40
KTS AT 925 TO 850 MBS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING MIXING. LOCAL PROBABILITIES SUGGEST WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH BUT NOT LIKELY TO REACH 45 MPH ADVISORY
LEVEL. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY WITH A CHANCE OF A MORNING SHOWER AND A
SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET, SEASONABLY COOL MID JUNE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON
SATURDAY BUT IT IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO OUR
CHANCE POPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK
UNTIL THE NEXT STRONG WAVE IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY.
12Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST JUST THE SOUTHERN FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
LOWER MI TO GET THE STRATIFORM RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THEN IT DRIES OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH
RISING HEIGHTS.
MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TREK ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT, WITH THAT BRINGING ALONG THE LOW THREAT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY
A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST. CLAIR
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40+ KNOTS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BOTH WITH AND OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH WIND DIRECTION TAKING A GRADUAL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERNLY FLOW THIS EVENING TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW
MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THE REGION COULD STILL EXPERIENCE 25 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
AND THE SAGINAW BAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUST TO GALE
WINDS LATE TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL THE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM NOW UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER, THE MAIN HAZARD
BEING WIND GUSTS OF 45+ KNOTS AND POTENTIALLY A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS
WELL.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DIMINISH, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL PLACE THE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
HURON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING, RELAXING WIND SPEEDS.
HYDROLOGY...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING, PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH NUMEROUS HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SE MI,
AND ISOLATED AREAS MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN 4 HOURS OR LESS, CURRENTLY CENTERED BETWEEN
8PM AND 2AM. RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1"/HR AT TIMES. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED FARTHER
NORTH TO AREAS AROUND PONTIAC, FLINT AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
SAGINAW AND CARO. THIS RAINFALL MAY POSE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT,
MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS, AND RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR AREAS ALONG M-46 AND
I-69. THE WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-59 MAINLY DUE TO
MOST OF THOSE LOCATIONS BEING MORE URBAN WITH LESS RAINFALL STILL
LEADING TO FLOODING CONCERNS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....TF
DISCUSSION...RBP
MARINE.......ZB/AM
HYDROLOGY....RBP
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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