618
FXUS63 KDTX 180956
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
556 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TODAY WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY DEPARTING OVER LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW LEFT IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
GUST MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE TO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE BY LATE
MORNING. DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS BROUGHT THE RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AT PRESS TIME, BUT THIS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND
POTENTIALLY REINTRODUCES MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT NORTH OF METRO DETROIT. DAYTIME MIXING LIFTS
LINGERING CEILINGS BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND BREVITY OF ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT CATEGORY PRECLUDES A
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WHILE SKIES TREND
MOSTLY CLEAR.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5 KFT THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODERATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW FOR CROSSWIND OPERATIONS TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 990 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE (FOR JUNE) STARTS TO
EXIT, TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO LAKE
HURON. GOES CHANNEL 9 SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA, WHICH EFFECTIVELY CONCLUDES LINGERING
ELEVATED SHOWERS APPROACHING THE LAKESHORE. THE WIDESPREAD TENDENCY
FOR ASCENT GENERATED BY LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS HAS LONG
DEPARTED, AND IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY,
REMNANT MCS/OUTFLOW CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO GAIN SIGNIFICANT
DEPTH.
CYCLONIC INFLUENCE DOES PERSIST TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
CIRCULATION, PRESENTING ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT DRIER MID LEVELS, WITH
EVEN SOME EVIDENCE OF WARMING, BUT POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE
RATES APPEAR TO STEEPEN. THIS DEVELOPS FROM WEAK COLD ADVECTION
AMIDST WNW FLOW, BUT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEPTHS PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER
CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH THE 120+ KNOT 300 MB JET CORE WINDS OUGHT TO
RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN/OHIO STATE LINE, A LOW-LEVEL JET
OF 30-45 KNOTS SHOULD OVERLAP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. THIS FAVORS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AT TIMES, WITH THE HIGHER
FREQUENCY/MAGNITUDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
STABILIZING RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN BY THIS EVENING, ENDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND WEAKENING THE WIND FIELD. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COOLER TONIGHT.
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OFFERS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY. A BIT WARMER, WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C, SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 70F, BUT WITH A
DIURNAL/INSOLATION BOOST FOR SOME INTO THE MID 70S. WEAK
TROUGH/PERTURBATION WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION PASS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY. WANING PACIFIC
MOISTURE MARGINALLY HELPS IMPROVE A SUB-SATURATED COLUMN, BUT
STEEPER 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NORTH OF I-69 COULD BE ENOUGH TO
TOUCH OFF SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TO THE
SOUTH, WARMER AND MORE STABLE PROFILES SUGGEST GREATER INHIBITION,
BUT MODELS LACK A WELL DEFINED SPATIAL SIGNAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WEAK AGGREGATE HIGH PRESSURE EMERGES ON SUNDAY, PRECEDING A SPEED
MAX EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, PERHAPS
COLLOCATED WITH AN MCS. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAVORABLE AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE, SUCH THAT THE BULK OF THE
RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RESERVED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHWARD EXTENSION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AND A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW COULD AFFECT THE EVOLUTION
OF THE WAVE TRAJECTORY. HIGHS COULD RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL MID-WEEK.
MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART FROM LAKE HURON
INTO QUEBEC TODAY. PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK TO REORIENT
WINDS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EXTENSION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HOLD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE, POSSIBLY NORTH INTO LAKE ST. CLAIR, AND COUPLED WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING DEPTHS, BRINGS A WINDOW TO SEE SOME ELEVATED
GUST POTENTIAL AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED GUST TO
GALES CANNOT BE RULED OUT LEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS
RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE LOCATIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL RELAX WIND SPEEDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME ELEVATED WINDS WILL
BE LIKELY THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE HURON GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FETCH.
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDING A
LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL
WAVES CROSS OVER THE STATE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....TF
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......AM
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