833
FXUS63 KDTX 190357
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF VFR CLOUD TO
FUNNEL THROUGH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS A MINOR MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN OFFER A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT
FOR A SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF VFR CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FRIDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN GUSTY WESTERLY CONDITIONS, AS
DEEPER MIXING AGAIN YIELDS GUST POTENTIAL INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5 KFT THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
DISCUSSION...
COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH AN 115+ KNOT UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING OUT OF THE PACNW THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS HAS SUPPORTED A HIGH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEPENED LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH. GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE THIS
EVENING AS STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH THE INBOUND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET WINDS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS LACKING DEEPER MOISTURE, THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND WEAK CAA PRESENTS LOW END POPS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLOUD CLEARING TREND
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL LEAD
TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW. LESS CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY AROUND THE MID 70S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE BROADER TROUGH AND ARRIVE LOCALLY
ON SATURDAY. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE WITH MARGINALLY IMPROVED
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS FOCUSED NORTH OF I-69.
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL MARK THE START OF SUNDAY AS A CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES UPSTREAM AROUND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORCED BY
A MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET, AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
MCS LOOKS TO CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SHOWS WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY, SO A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
THE MAIN FOCUS. THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR A SHIFT IN THE RAINFALL
AXIS, BUT HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS
IN AND OH. TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
LOOKS SOMEWHAT STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S.
MARINE...
BREEZY WEST FLOW PERSISTS FOR THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS IN THE
WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN
20-30 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WILL REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND GUST POTENTIAL. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY PASSES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A LOW CHANCE
FOR AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG WITH ELEVATED WIND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST. CLAIR.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM
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