614
FXUS63 KDTX 191847
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
247 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOCUSED OVER THE THUMB THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
- BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-94.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HEALTHY DIURNAL CUMULUS RESPONSE TODAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED STEEPENING LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK
RESULTANT INSTABILITY (<500 J/KG) IS FOCUSED OVER THE THUMB WHERE
COOLEST AIR ALOFT RESIDES OFFERING AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING. LACK OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDES
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOWEVER A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 7KFT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT IS SHUNTED EAST BY THE ARRIVAL OF A
COMPACT WAVE ARRIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ACCOMPANYING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
AT LEAST PARTIALLY DECAY AS IT ARRIVES OVER SE MI OWING TO BOTH
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AS WELL AS THE LINGERING DRIER RESIDENT
AIRMASS (PW NEAR 0.6"/TD NEAR 50F). THIS AM ACTIVITY DOES AUGMENT
THE COLUMN MOISTURE PROFILE AS TOP-DOWN SATURATION OCCURS BY LATE
MORNING SUPPORTING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS A PEAK OF
~500J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORED OVER THE SAGINAW
VALLEY/THUMB WHERE THE FAINT SURFACE 'WARM FRONT' STALLS PROVIDING A
WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS IN ADDITION TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT
PV ANOMALY.
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGING FOLLOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A PLAINS SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. MID-RANGE MODEL TRENDS HAVE HELD
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE WAVE RESULTING IN THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT HOLDING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. GIVEN
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LOWER MI FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRESSURE,
EXPECT A SHARPER CUTOFF TO THE PRECIP SHIELD THAN THE CURRENT BROAD
BRUSHED LIKELY POPS FROM THE NBM. AREAS SOUTH OF M-59 STAND THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING WITH HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND 1") CONFINED TO NEAR THE OHIO BORDER.
THERMAL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDWEEK MAINTAINING SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COME WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK UPPER
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING WHICH WILL DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS AND GUST INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT. A DIFFUSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HOLD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT LIGHTER WINDS.
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
ARRIVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY MORNING, THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS, MAINLY
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST. CLAIR.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CU DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE LATE THIS MORNING,
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE HANGING AROUND
FOR THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE, BUT THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDING EARLY THIS EVENING AND
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY, CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EXPECTED, BUT MAINLY
OVER THE THUMB REGION AND NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BOTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
D21/DTW CONVECTION... VERY LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDESTORM LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON, MODERATE LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......AM
AVIATION.....SF
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