055
FXUS63 KDTX 220356
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1156 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS INCREASE COVERAGE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF DETROIT
WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.25 INCH. LESSER AMOUNTS
TO THE NORTH.
- SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY MORNING THEN DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE EVIDENT NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THRU THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING DECLINE IN CEILING HEIGHT
WITH TIME. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS PAIRED WITH RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL DECLINE IN IFR AT PTK AND
THE DETROIT CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT
FNT, WHILE MBS HOVERS AT THE FRINGE OF MVFR/LOW VFR FOR A BRIEF TIME
NEAR DAYBREAK. SOME REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY INTO THE 2 TO 4 MILE
RANGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY THUS FAR, SUGGESTING ELEVATED INSTABILITY LACKS TO SUPPORT
A GREATER POSSIBILITY AND WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION. PREVAILING
WINDS EMERGING FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, THEN TURNING
MODESTLY GUSTY ON MONDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS RAIN
TAPERS OFF BY LATE MORNING AND DAYTIME MIXING ENSUES. THIS WILL
BRING A PROGRESSIVE TRANSITION FROM MVFR BACK INTO VFR WITH A
LINGERING COVERAGE OF HIGH BASED CU FOR THE AFTERNOON.
D21/DTW CONVECTION... THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW FOR
LATE TONIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND MOST OF MONDAY.
* VERY LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
DISCUSSION...
THE HYBRID BAROCLINIC CYCLONE AND MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING OUT OF MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A STRONG AND VERY CONSISTENT MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT SUPPORTS A SPLIT IN THE FORCING WITH DEEP BOUNDARY
ROOTED CONVECTION TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY, WHILE SEASONABLY STRONG 850MB
AND 700MB FRONTOGENESIS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR WESTERN
LAKE ERIE BASIN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL FAVOR THIS NORTHERN ROUTE AS IT IS DRIVEN BY
STRENGTHENING AND VERY RAPIDLY ORGANIZING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS. THE LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION FOR TONIGHT REMAINS HOW HIGH UP
OR WHAT LEVEL THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL ACTIVATE. THE CURRENT NAM NEST
SUGGESTS THE CENTER LINE OF THE 850MB FGEN AXIS WILL SET UP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN OHIO STATELINE, WHEREAS THE 700MB FGEN AXIS
TRACKS NEAR LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES WHILE ECLIPSING WAYNE
COUNTY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGESTS QPF AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 1.33 OF
INCH WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME PEAK AMOUNTS OF 2.00 INCH IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
WAS REALLY AGONIZING OVER THE DECISION TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH,
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARGUE AGAINST IT. THE FACTORS INCLUDE:
DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS, NOT EXPECTING TO REACH 6 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF 2.25 INCHES, QPF AXIS
FORECASTED SOUTH OF METRO DETROIT, NARROW QPF AXIS AT A COUNTY WIDE
OR LESS, AND NO CONNECTION TO TRUE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
RESERVOIR.
LEAD DEFORMATION/WARM ADVECTION LIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN AFTER
22Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, THEN INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 01-
2Z THIS EVENING. EARLY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE STRATIFORM LOOK
BASED ON HIRES DEPICTIONS. SUBSET OF MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE CAUSING A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AT MONROE COUNTY BETWEEN 8-12Z. IT IS WITH THIS
COMPACT CONVERGENCE FORCING THAT WILL BRING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
RATES ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS MORE LOCALIZED DEFORMATION RESPONSE
ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. SURVEY OF MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A TOP END OF
RAINFALL RATES COULD BE UP TO 0.50" PER HOUR. BREADTH OF UPPER LEVEL
JET FORCING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE M 46 CORRIDOR.
LAST OF SHEARING DEFORMATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN BY/AFTER 18Z MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 20-23Z. DIFFICULT TO INCLUDE A POP LATER IN
THE DAY WITH ONLY A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO ACHIEVE SOME REASONABLE
CONVECTIVE DEPTH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOWN TO 7.0 KFT AGL. SPOTTY
AT BEST. WINDS SHOULD BE COME WELL MIXED IN THE DRY ADVECTION,
HOLDING NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LIE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER 00-01Z.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S
(2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) WITH MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A VERY BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHICH LIMITS PREDICTABILITY BECAUSE OF TIMING
IN INTERNAL ABSOLUTE VORTICITY MAXIMA. AT THIS VANTAGE POINT,
INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE EPS DATASET WHICH HAS MEAN VALUES
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
MAINLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL SUMMERLIKE
WEATHER.
MARINE...
A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL ELEVATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE, BRINGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL AROUND
25 KNOTS ALONG WITH INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE ST. CLAIR OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWER MAGNITUDE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE SAGINAW BAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WIND DIRECTION BACKS NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO
1.25 INCH APPEAR LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2.00 INCHES. PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3AM TO 8AM. WITH NO EXPECTATION FOR
RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....CB
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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