700
FXUS63 KDTX 221901
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
301 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LINGERS INTO
THURSDAY.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE PEELS AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE EAST COAST
THIS EVENING, DRAWING THE DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. THIS
HAS LED TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON MAINTAINS A HEALTHY COVER
OF DIURNAL CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WANING CYCLONIC
INFLUENCE AND INBOUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CAUSE WINDS TO BACK
NORTHERLY TONIGHT, WHICH HELPS SHUT OFF THE LAKE INFLUENCE IN FAVOR
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
PAIR OF PV ANOMALIES OVER CANADA AND RIDGING OVER SW CONUS GOVERN
THE HEIGHT FIELD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, MAINTAINING A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER IS TUESDAY AS PWAT VALUES DROP TO 0.6" WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
STATIC STABILITY IN THE LOWEST 15.0 KFT. MAIN ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR TUESDAY IS CLOUD COVER, WHICH MAY COME IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUD
ADVECTING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND/OR A SCATTERED BOUNDARY LAYER CU
FIELD. MIXTURE OF SUN AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THUS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY.
TRAILING PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN REACHES THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO TOP-DOWN THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER THUS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC INFLUENCE KEEPS MUCH OF THE DETROIT AREA DRY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST SHOT AT EARLIER
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DISJOINTED COLUMN
MOISTURE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
LIKELY BE DISRUPTED TO SOME DEGREE BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN CONUS. HIGHEST POPS ARE THUS ANCHORED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
PLAY WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT AS LAPSE RATES ONLY BRIEFLY
PEAK AROUND 6.5 C/KM WHICH CAPS MUCAPE ~500 J/KG. IN GENERAL MOST
AREAS SEE UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF, ALTHOUGH SOME
HIGHER OUTLIERS EXIST MAINLY IN SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE OCCLUDING
LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LINGERING SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AND THE LOW STALLS OVER LAKE HURON.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-
LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL SEVERAL
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES ON DECK, FORMING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, AN ANOMALOUS LOW
ARRIVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT
AGREEMENT IN ITS TIMING BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CLUSTER
ANALYSIS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW DEEP IT CARVES ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL THEN IMPACT DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SIGNALS A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM UP IS UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
AS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, THE WIND
REALLY ISN'T UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SCA FOR LAKE ERIE AND WILL CANCEL
THAT EARLY. THE NORTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE MORE THAN IT IS GOING
AT 18Z, SPECIFICALLY AROUND 03Z TO 07Z OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE SCA. WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK NORTH TO
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
AVIATION...
REMNANT MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE DETROIT AIRSPACE. FARTHER
NORTH, DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN A REDUCED COVERAGE
VFR CUMULUS FIELD. CONTINUED DRYING ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WILL OCCUR
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO GROW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE MIXING
TAKES SHAPE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT - AND
CONTAIN A MODEST GUST COMPONENT - WHILE THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FADE. VERY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL ESTABLISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......RBP
AVIATION.....MANN
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