536
FXUS63 KDTX 231750
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN
LASTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL FLIP AROUND
TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL INTRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE DAY
WILL HAVE PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD WITH DIURNAL CU THAT WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
NEARLY TO THE MS/LA GULF COAST TODAY. THE NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE AXIS
HOLDS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND INTO SE MI. IT CONTINUES THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS,
HOWEVER SURFACE TD REMAINS IN OR RETURNS THE 50S AS DAYTIME HEATING
PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON. A GENEROUS FIELD OF CUMULUS COVERAGE IS THE
RESULT BUT LITTLE ELSE GIVEN THE ADEQUATE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOWN IN A SURVEY OF MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOKS VERY REASONABLE IN TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE, EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE.
CUMULUS TRANSITIONS TO INCREASING CIRRUS COVERAGE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH RESPECTABLE INTENSITY AND EASILY ABLE TO
ORGANIZE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. CONSENSUS OF 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS
THEN HAS THE SURFACE LOW ON SCHEDULE TO REACH THE MB/ND BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE MN ARROWHEAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM SETS
UP A STANDARD PATTERN OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT FULL ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE GIVEN THE FRONT STALLED
ALONG THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL, RATHER THAN EXCESSIVE, PW IN THE 1.0
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE IS SHOWN BUILDING INTO LOWER MI WITH THE WARM
SECTOR THETA-E RIDGE DURING WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
INCREASE COVERAGE WHILE SPREADING FROM THE TRI CITIES TOWARD FLINT
AND THUMB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHWARD TOWARD METRO DETROIT
BY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROVIDES AN ASSIST TO COVERAGE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WHILE INTENSITY FIGHTS AGAINST NOCTURNAL TIMING. THE GFS PARAMETER
SPACE CAN BE SNEAKY GOOD AT CAPTURING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION, BOTH
SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED, AND EVEN IT STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN MUCAPE
ABOVE 500 J/KG IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS THEN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME THURSDAY AS THE
00Z MODEL CYCLE AGREES ON SLOWER EASTWARD TIMING/PROGRESS OF THE LOW
AND COLD FRONT NOT SETTLING INTO ONTARIO AND OHIO UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, DIFFUSE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS THE THURSDAY FRONT STALLS IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE FRONT BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN JUDGING BY MODEL QPF FIELDS, BUT WHICH REMAINS SOUTH OF
LOWER MI IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LARGER SCALE CHANGES
BEGIN IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. THIS IS CENTERED AROUND THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW SHOWN IN EXTENDED TIME RANGE MODELS DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THE LONG WAVE
AMPLIFICATION POINTS TO A TEMPERATURE TREND SHIFTING ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......RBP
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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