610
FXUS63 KDTX 231844
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
244 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS TONIGHT.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN
LASTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON HAS LED TO DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH TRANSIENT CIRRUS ALOFT.
COMFORTABLE EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE MICHIGAN WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 70S AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LEAD EDGE OF THE HEIGHT FALL CENTER MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND
THICKENING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ARM OF
THIS SYSTEM THEN SUPPLIES MOIST ASCENT INTO THE LOWEST 700MB OF THE
COLUMN BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT,
CREATING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ACROSS SE MICHIGAN. STANDARD
CONCERNS AS TO HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
IMPACT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, WHICH
CAPS QPF TO A HALF INCH OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 6.0 C/KM IN THE WARM ADVECTIVE
REGIME.
DRY SLOT ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WITH ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS
RIPPLING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT COULD OVERCOME SOME
OF THE ONGOING SUBSIDENCE. THIS KEEPS LOWER POPS IN PLAY FOR THE
MORNING HOURS, UNTIL INSTABILITY BUILDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE TO 6.5
C/KM AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, WHICH ALSO
ADDS BROADER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TO THE ENVIRONMENT AND REINVIGORATES
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB WHICH ARE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE. VARYING DEGREES OF
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MODEL SUITE, WITH CAPPING POTENTIAL INCREASING
SOUTH OF I-69. IF THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY (E.G.
NAM), THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A STRONGER CELL OR TWO ACROSS
THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
POPS THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE FRONT COMPLETELY SLIDES
THROUGH IN FAVOR OF DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE A WARM
UP IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN WHICH A HOT AND
HUMID PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EMERGE. REMNANT BAROCLINIC AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE STILL MANY POINTS IN THE FORECAST CYCLE WHERE THIS COULD TREND
NORTH. ROUGHLY A THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERATE MEASURABLE QPF
THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERWAYS THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEST WINDS
PREVAILING GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. LIMITED WIND AND WAVE ACTION EXPECTED OVERALL GIVEN A WEAK
GRADIENT, BUT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL FLIP AROUND
TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL INTRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE DAY
WILL HAVE PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD WITH DIURNAL CU THAT WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....DRK
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