731
FXUS63 KDTX 240758
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT; THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW DURING THE DAY, AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TONIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW-END
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- TURNING DRIER ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS NEAR THE OHIO BORDER
COULD GET CLIPPED BY A COUPLE SHOWERS.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF STORMS.
DISCUSSION
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNLOCKS TODAY AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
DISLODGES FROM SOUTHEAST MANITOBA ONCE A SPEED MAX ALOFT MOVES FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON-GOING ALONG THESE FEATURES, SUPPORTED BY
RESPECTIVE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AND AN ADVANCING GULF FEED OF HIGHER
THETAE. HIGH-BASED CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPILL DOWNSTREAM INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AS 24.00Z KDTX RAOB SAMPLED A MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
LACKING SATURATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
ACCELERATES BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z TODAY AS COLUMN WINDS BACK ZONALLY
IN RESPONSE TO PRECEDING HEIGHT FALLS. PWATS ARE PROJECTED TO
DOUBLE, FROM ABOUT 0.50 INCHES TO OVER 1.00 INCHES, BY 18Z, AIDED BY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY ORIENTING SOUTHWESTERLY PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF EXPECTED RAINFALL. STANDARD VARIANCE EXISTS IN CAMS
REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WHICH COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 17Z FOR THE TRI-CITIES REGION. LATEST POPS
REASONABLY PHASE-IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE WORDING NORTH OF I-69 ALONG
THE LEADING LOBE OF CVA, BEFORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS FILL IN
FURTHER SOUTH. SCOPE OF ELECTRIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF CAPPING NEAR 10 KFT AND DELAYED BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING, WHICH SUPPRESSES MEAN SBCAPE VALUES TO LESS THAN 100
J/KG.
SHOWERS WANE/EXIT RATHER QUICKLY BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z THURSDAY AS
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE OCCLUDED LOW DRIFTS
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT
COVERAGE OUGHT TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH THIS SECONDARY
RESPONSE. MODEL AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT REMAINS POOR, EVEN AT THIS
TIME HORIZON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE OVERNIGHT BENEATH A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, PROMOTING AN UPWARD TREND IN
INSTABILITY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
THE WEAK AFOREMENTIONED LOW GRADUALLY CROSSES CENTRAL LOWER ON
THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE PRESENCE OF
SUSTAINED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PARCEL PATHS COULD OVERCOME WEAK SUB-5
KFT CAPPING EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TALL/SKINNY SBCAPE PROFILES
ARE THEN ADVERTISED BY SEVERAL HI-RES SOLUTIONS, AND HREF MEAN
MUCAPE INDICATES WIDESPREAD 1+ KJ/KG ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER 0-6
KM SHEAR MAY BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF M-59, WHICH LENDS LOW-END POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AND AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
THREAT, SHOULD THE CAP ERODE AS PREDICTED. THURSDAY ALSO MARKS THE
FIRST DAY WHERE HIGHS COULD BREAK 80F, PRIMARILY FOR METRO DETROIT
AND POINTS SOUTH, WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE 13. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT THURSDAY WITH DRYING AND STABILIZATION CONCLUDING
ACTIVITY.
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEMMING FROM A DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ENE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT THE NORTHWARD CREEP OF MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM, BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
PARTS OF LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES TO GET CLIPPED AT SOME POINT
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH
READINGS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW TRAJECTORIES
TRACING NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO.
HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILDING OVERHEAD SATURDAY AS CENTRAL CONUS
TRANSITIONS TO A LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. GRADIENT WINDS MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY, HELPING TO CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL CREEP IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
THIS BECOMES MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS SPIKE AND APPROACH 600 DAM NEAR THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. THIS LEADS TO AN
AMPLIFIED COMPOSITE RIDGE AXIS OCCUPYING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA, AND
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPEN THE IMPACT OF A POSITIVELY TILTED
PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW DESCENDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND AI GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS IMPLY CONFIDENCE IN THE STAYING POWER OF THIS RIDGE
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING IN THE
70S MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES. ADDITIONALLY,
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS AS UPSTREAM WAVES TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INTERMITTENT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIMITED WIND AND WAVE
ACTION EXPECTED OVERALL GIVEN A WEAK GRADIENT, BUT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AVIATION...
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS VFR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING INCREASING LOWER VFR CLOUD
COVER BY LATE MORNING WITH SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON TIED
TO DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. EXACTLY HOW WELL THIS ACTIVITY
SURVIVES INTO SE MI CARRIES UNCERTAINTY STILL HOWEVER ALL TERMINALS
LIKELY SEE PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDER CAN'T
BE RULED OUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, A VERY LOW CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KGK/MR
AVIATION.....KDK
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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