240
FXUS63 KDTX 241946
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TONIGHT. GENERAL THUNDER POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TONIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW-END
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW IS A THETAE RIDGE WITH GULF
MOISTURE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME. LOCAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS LIMITED IN REGARDS
TO INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOW THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE. EXPECTATION IS FOR COVERAGE TO BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. THE GREATER COVERAGE POTENTIALLY FOCUSED MORE SOUTH
OF M-59 EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF M-59
LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY IS DRAWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
STAY TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTH/NORTHWEST
INDIANA. WHILE PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 1.00 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON, OVERALL FORCING REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL PRETTY LIMITED. THIS IN TURN SHOULD TAME THE
HOURLY AND 3 HOURLY QPF RATES.
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER MICHIGAN TOMORROW ALONG
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CAPE DEPTH AVAILABLE. TALL/SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES WITH BETTER SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL SUPPORT A LOW END
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SUSTAINED
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW AS WELL. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS AN CLEAR ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN, PARTS OF DETROIT METRO AND POINTS SOUTH MAY BE ABLE
TO MAKE A RUN AT 80 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GAIN GREATER
INFLUENCE LOCALLY TOWARDS THE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND NNE
FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD LEAK OF CONVECTION WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY, THOUGH LOW END
POPS (~30%) REMAIN WARRANTED SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH COOLER FLOW DECREASING AFTERNOON HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY BY A FEW DEGREES DOWN TO THE MID 70S. THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY WINDS ON
SUNDAY WILL MITIGATE THE WARMING TO SOME DEGREE WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFERING AT LEAST MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR EXTREME HEAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH WOULD
INCLUDE SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 70S. ENSEMBLE AND AI SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARDS MID 90S BECOMING
ACHIEVABLE TUES/WED TRANSLATING TO HEAT INDICES TO 100 DEGREES OR
GREATER. TIMING AND DURATION OF ANY CONVECTION RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THIS TIME WHICH WOULD IMPACT
DAILY HIGHS AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SET UPS.
MARINE
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TREK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS, POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS OUR AREA A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
WARMER AND CALMER WEATHER ALONG WITH IT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
AVIATION...
THICKENING CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
TRACK TO IMPACT THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z-00Z THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE CAUSES RAIN TO EVAPORATE AS IT MOVES EAST,
THUS THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING
OBSERVED UPSTREAM WITH EVEN LESS INSTABILITY OVER SE MICHIGAN POINTS
TOWARD JUST SHOWERS THROUGH DUSK. SECOND ROUND OF STORMS FIRING OVER
WISCONSIN PROVIDES A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO SURVIVE THIS FAR
EAST, BUT STILL TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THIS
ACTIVITY PIVOTS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, ARRIVING TO THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE AIRSPACE AFTER 03Z AND MAY CLIP AS FAR NORTH AS PTK. A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE BACK EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS ENDS, BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PARENT LOW THEN MOVES
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT, BOOSTING LAPSE RATES AND
TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LOW
CHANCE FOR THIS TO IMPACT MBS/FNT, AS FAVORED INITIATION SPOT IN THE
MODELS IS EAST OF THE TERMINALS. DRY SLOT THEN QUICKLY FILLS IN
THURSDAY MORNING, TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAUSING MVFR TO IFR
CIGS THAT WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. CLOUDS THEN BEGIN
TO SCATTER THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS IMPACT THE DTW CORRIDOR
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AND ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY FORMING OVER WISCONSIN AND SET TO REACH DTW AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH STILL LOW (ABOUT 30%).
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH
TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......ZB
AVIATION.....MV
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