921
FXUS63 KDTX 242324
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
724 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW-END
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF
STORMS.
AVIATION
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY FIZZLED OUT WITH ONLY POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN LINGERING AROUND THE DETROIT TERMINALS TO START
THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES LATE
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT ARE TIED TO ONGOING CONVECTION OVER WI HOWEVER
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING LIMITS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MODEST SHOWERS (MVFR VSBYS) ARE FAVORED FROM PTK SOUTH WITH SPOTTIER
COVERAGE TO THE NORTH.
PARENT LOW REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DRAWING
IN RICHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING TO LOWERING CEILINGS INTO
MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND IFR IN THE NORTH BY DAYBREAK. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS (PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM) LOOK TO DEVELOP ON THE
NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE AFTER SUNRISE, HOWEVER POSITIONING BY THAT
TIME IS JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
PROB30 RAIN MENTION FOR DET. CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER SOUTH TO NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN
IS SET TO REACH DTW AROUND/AFTER 03Z TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER CHANCES, ALTHOUGH STILL LOW (ABOUT 30%).
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* MODERATE FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT LATE THIS EVENING, HIGH
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 07Z TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW IS A THETAE RIDGE WITH GULF
MOISTURE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME. LOCAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS LIMITED IN REGARDS
TO INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES, WHICH KEEPS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOW THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE. EXPECTATION IS FOR COVERAGE TO BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. THE GREATER COVERAGE POTENTIALLY FOCUSED MORE SOUTH
OF M-59 EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF M-59
LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY IS DRAWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
STAY TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTH/NORTHWEST
INDIANA. WHILE PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 1.00 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON, OVERALL FORCING REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL PRETTY LIMITED. THIS IN TURN SHOULD TAME THE
HOURLY AND 3 HOURLY QPF RATES.
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER MICHIGAN TOMORROW ALONG
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CAPE DEPTH AVAILABLE. TALL/SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES WITH BETTER SHEAR AVAILABLE WILL SUPPORT A LOW END
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SUSTAINED
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW AS WELL. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS AN CLEAR ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN, PARTS OF DETROIT METRO AND POINTS SOUTH MAY BE ABLE
TO MAKE A RUN AT 80 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GAIN GREATER
INFLUENCE LOCALLY TOWARDS THE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND NNE
FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD LEAK OF CONVECTION WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY, THOUGH LOW END
POPS (~30%) REMAIN WARRANTED SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH COOLER FLOW DECREASING AFTERNOON HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY BY A FEW DEGREES DOWN TO THE MID 70S. THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY WINDS ON
SUNDAY WILL MITIGATE THE WARMING TO SOME DEGREE WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFERING AT LEAST MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR EXTREME HEAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH WOULD
INCLUDE SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 70S. ENSEMBLE AND AI SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARDS MID 90S BECOMING
ACHIEVABLE TUES/WED TRANSLATING TO HEAT INDICES TO 100 DEGREES OR
GREATER. TIMING AND DURATION OF ANY CONVECTION RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THIS TIME WHICH WOULD IMPACT
DAILY HIGHS AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SET UPS.
MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TREK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS, POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS OUR AREA A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
WARMER AND CALMER WEATHER ALONG WITH IT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......ZB
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