742
FXUS63 KDTX 191728
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
128 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STATEWIDE AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AS
ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE FILTERS ACROSS MICHIGAN.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY THAT POSES A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AIRSPACE, MAINTAINING LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AT ALL TERMINALS. A LOCALIZED SHIFT TO THE
E (POSSIBLY SE) FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT DET/DTW/YIP WITH
A LAKE BREEZE OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST. CLAIR, ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT AOB 10 KNOTS. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE THE RESULT OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
UNTIL WINDS FULLY FLIP TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. MVFR RESTRICTIONS THUS CONTINUE. OTHERWISE, HEALTHY
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CUMULUS KEEPS LOW VFR CEILINGS AROUND UNTIL
SUNSET.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
30 HOURS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LOW
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
DISCUSSION...
POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS TODAY
BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA
TO LINGER OVER THE STATE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE
FUNNELING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY. THUS, THE AIR
QUALITY ALERT IS IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY AND FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. SMOKE MODELS DO SHOW LESSER CONCENTRATIONS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT HANGING OUT
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND DRIFTS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS AND A
FORECAST FREE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PASSING OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW, WHICH MAY DRAW
NEARBY WILDFIRE SMOKE BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW NIGHT DRIVEN BY
THE MID-UPPER JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SUPPORT THE NEXT CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ARRIVAL WILL CARRY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, MODELS WANT TO HANG ON TO
INSTABILITY DURING THE ARRIVAL AS BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE
WITH IMPROVING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WITH A SLIVER OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
TRAILING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
MORNING ACTIVITY PLAYS OUT AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT IS
ABLE TO REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT FALL TO BELOW 10C. THE RESULT WILL
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING
PUSHED SOUTH BY AN EASTERN CANADA TROUGH.
MARINE...
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY SUPPORTING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO PREVAILING WINDS
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT FRONT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SAGINAW BAY WHERE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD CHANNEL MORE EFFICIENTLY. POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ACROSS THE WATERWAYS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, LEADING TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
SHOWERY WEATHER COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
MANITOBA BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KGK
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