187
FXUS63 KDTX 230713
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
313 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EJECT THROUGH THE BASAL
SUBGEOSTROPHIC PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHING TODAY
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT FILLING OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW TO MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY MODERATE OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOW AT +7C TO +8C RISING +12C TO +13C BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL HELP FACILITATE WELL ORGANIZED NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN ADAMANT IN FORECASTING AN ABUNDANCE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SCATTERED DURING
THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LOW
PRESSURE ARRIVING SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
PROJECT TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S.
MARINE
SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS 850 MB TEMPS
REACH AROUND 12 C ON FRIDAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO FRIDAY, THE LIGHTEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER LAKE ST. CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE. EVEN OVER LAKE HURON,
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY UNDER 20 KNOTS. A SURFACE
TROUGH SLOWLY PASSING THROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
THE NEXT NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON MONDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH AND EXCEED 20 KNOTS
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
AVIATION...
IDEAL VFR AVIATION WEATHER IS PROVIDED BY A BROAD AREA OF MIDWEST
HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AFTER CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND
DURING THE NIGHT, A FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD RETURNS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE IN FAVOR OF CLEAR SKY AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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