539
FXUS63 KDTX 231913
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
313 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE US
UNDER SUBSIDENCE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-59 WILL LIKELY SEE AN UPTICK
IN CLOUD COVER.
THE FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, WITH THE
PATTERN TURNING MORE ACTIVE FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WE WILL SEE AN
UPTICK IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S, PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, HELPING TO PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN AIR TEMPERATURES.
THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ARE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WHERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT AT NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE REGION. AT THIS TIME, SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS
ON THE GRADIENT OF BETTER INSTABILITY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND
MORE THAN ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
THUS, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT VARIOUS AI/ML TOOLS FOR
SUNDAY, A FEW DO HIGHLIGHT SOME OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER. THEN FOR MONDAY, THE SPC HAS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
UNDER A 15% DAY 5 OUTLOOK AND A FEW AI/ML TOOLS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR EVEN HIGHER PROBABILITIES.
MARINE
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL, STRADDLING THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON, WITH A FEW GUSTS
AOA 20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE CASE TOMORROW, DESPITE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
THE NEXT NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON MONDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 25 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS CENTER OF A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY
GET TO SCT/BKN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD MIX OUT TO FEW/SCT
CUMULUS FIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT WILL
CARRY A CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER 10KFT.
EXPECT A CIRRUS CANOPY TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. FEW/SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JA
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....RBP
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