054
FXUS63 KDTX 271946
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
- A WARMING TREND LIFTS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
HEIGHT RISES ARE UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
FLATTENS AND GETS ABSORBED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER
LOW PARKED OVER HUDSON BAY. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT EMBEDDED SPEED MAX
CARVES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
REVERSING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TRENDS. WEAK CVA IS EVIDENT IN MID
LEVEL PROGS WHICH COULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT ATOP SHALLOW
BOUNDARY-LAYER SATURATION. THIS MIGHT SPUR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY OVER THE
THUMB WHERE MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE MORE FAVORABLE. PRIOR TO 20Z A
LONE MESO-GAMMA SCALE SHOWER (OR VIRGA) WAS NOTED PER KDTX
REFLECTIVITY DATA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONVERGE ON LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY WITH WEAKENING
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS HELPS
OFFSET HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 80F AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DIP INTO SINGLE DIGIT
TERRITORY (CELSIUS). HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN GRADIENT
WINDS FLIPPING SOUTHWESTERLY. A SHORTER WAVELENGTH SOUTHERN STREAM
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ANOTHER DAY, WHILE A WARMING TREND ALSO GETS UNDERWAY SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD LAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT-DRIVEN SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-
96. THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES AND CENTERS OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN BE GOVERNED BY MCS ACTIVITY UNTIL
MID-WEEK AS A MUGGY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SITUATES IN THE VICINITY.
MARINE
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS
NO REAL CHANGES TO CURRENT CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SHIFTING WINDS TO A
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES.
SAID HIGH THEN DRIFTS OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MAINTAINING LIGHTER WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
AVIATION...
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS (3-5 KFT) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE, BUT WILL MAINLY CONFINED TO THE THUMB REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH TOMORROW WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10 KNOTS). SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT AREAL EXTENT IS DIFFICULT TO
GAUGE. EXPECT TO REMAIN ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE WITH A SCT GROUP FOR
THE TAFS. SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF BKN SKIES REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW HOWEVER (AS WELL AS PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES), BUT
TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....SF
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