664
FXUS63 KDTX 281036
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
636 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING MY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES TO AROUND 5KFT MAY BECOME BRIEFLY BKN
BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO FOLLOW
TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FLIP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING A LARGELY DRY FORECAST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, BRINGING A VERY
LOW CHANCE TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES TO
THUMB. WEAK MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY KEEPS THE
POSSIBILITY OF THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH LITTLE
FORCING LOCALLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW.
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL ESTABLISHED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS HELPS INITIATE AND SUPPORT SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD AS AN MCS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE SYSTEMS,
CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER LITTLE INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHEAR WITH
EASTWARD EXTEND, FAVORING A REDUCTION IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
BEFORE REACHING SE MI. SOME REMNANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD SURVIVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.
OF POTENTIAL GREATER CONSEQUENCE THROUGH THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY
TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CURRENT
GUIDANCE FOCUSES THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, LEAVING MUCH OF SE MI
DRY. THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE VERY WARM NBM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND
UP TO 90 IN THE URBAN AREAS BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AT
THIS RANGE ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES WOULD SUGGEST AS
ONLY A MODEST SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE PROJECTED
ASCENT/PRECIPITATION WOULD INTRODUCE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER CLOUD
COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS A LARGER PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFT COULD HOLD PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND ESTABLISH A MUCH SHARPER NORTH-SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY.
THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVERGENCE BETWEEN MODEL OUTPUT OF A MORE
NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES WARM ADVECTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD THEN
FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT OVERALL NEXT WEEK DOES
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASED FLOOD RISK SHOULD THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
FAIL TO MAKE APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS BY THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY WEATHER. INFLUENCE OF SAID HIGH WANES TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES HOLDING ON ITS WESTERNMOST
FRINGE. THIS ALLOWS FOR MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY WITH GUSTS HOLDING AOB 20KTS. ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE
SUNDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA USHERING IN A MORE HUMID AIRMASS LEADING
NUMEROUS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
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