913
FXUS63 KDTX 282248
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
648 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A NEW ROUND OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK
PERIOD.
AVIATION
SUBTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME EXPANSION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (BASED ABOVE 6K FEET). THE EASING
AND DEPARTURE OF THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK GRADIENT FLOW AS A RESULT
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AN INCREASING SOUTH
GRADIENT ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DRIVE AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT,
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS MIXED WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD COMPONENT TIED TO
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OTHERWISE
THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE ACROSS LOWER MI TODAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH THE MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE
PRODUCING PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THAT CONTINUE
TONIGHT. CLOUD PRODUCTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
WEAK AND THETA-E DISORGANIZED, HOWEVER PERIODS OF CLEAR SKY HAVE
ADEQUATE DURATION FOR ENOUGH COOLING TO REACH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S OUTSIDE OF METRO DETROIT. BESIDE THE CLOUDS, AN
UPTICK IN SOUTH WIND OCCURS BEFORE SUNRISE WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP READINGS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, WHICH EVEN SAW
SOME 40S IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING SATURDAY.
THESE ARE THE PRIMARY SURFACE WEATHER ELEMENTS CONNECTED BY THE
UPPER JET SPANNING THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM MONTANA TO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. IT'S THE UPPER JET THAT BOOSTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
MUCH FARTHER EASTWARD REACH INTO LOWER MI COMPARED TO THE WARM FRONT
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN A RENEWED
CLOUD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY ON LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS WEST TO EAST INTO LOWER
MI. THE INBOUND MOISTURE AXIS HELPS IMPROVE PROSPECTS THAT
CONVECTIVE REMNANTS SURVIVE INTO SE MI BY SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THEN LINGER DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE PLAINS TO MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE PREFERRED FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NBM TO
FINISH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY'S 12Z DETERMINISTIC/AI/ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS STILL A FORECAST FOCUS FOR
MONDAY. CONSENSUS SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THAT BUILDS
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF LOWER MI FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY WEATHER. INFLUENCE OF SAID HIGH WANES SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES HOLDING ON ITS
WESTERNMOST FRINGE. THIS ALLOWS FOR MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS HOLDING AOB 20KTS, SAVE FOR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON WHERE FAVORABLE FETCH COULD ALLOW FOR UP TO
25KTS. ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS BY SUNDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
USHERING IN A MORE HUMID AIRMASS LEADING NUMEROUS SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......KDK
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