003
FXUS63 KDTX 022000
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
- A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME FROST POTENTIAL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
COOL POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW HAS RAPIDLY STEEPENED LAPSE RATES
THROUGH 850MB WHICH WITH SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED
IN HEALTHY STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT HAS
EXTENDED IN THROUGH THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND ANEMIC MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES AND INTERIOR OF THE THUMB, AND
LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, NORTH TO NORTH-EAST FLOW
BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS
GIVEN THIS LAKE INFLUENCE, MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS THE THUMB.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL DEPART INTO THE CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GENERALLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WINDOW.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES CENTERED SUNDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL WAVE TRAVELS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR BRIEF AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOST FAVORABLE NORTH OF I-94. HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN FILL IN BEHIND
THE WAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. OUTSIDE OF A VERY WEAK SIGNAL FOR A SECOND CHANCE FOR
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND GLANCING MID-LEVEL WAVE, VERY LIMITED
FORCING PROVIDES VERY LITTLE CHANCES FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KT CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING, THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS THE HEIGHTENED WAVE
FIELD GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. LIGHT WINDS THEN CARRY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER LAKE HURON. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLATED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE MORNING
WHICH THEN VEERS TO NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT THE MAIN
MARINE CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING GUSTINESS TO THE POST-FRONTAL
FLOW, WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO OR ABOVE 30 KT. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LESS THAN A 20% PROBABILITY FOR GALES ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AVIATION...
NW FLOW TRAILING THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT IS CARRYING IN COOLER
AIR THAT STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CUMULUS FIELD AS DAYTIME
INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED COVERAGE BUILDS INTO
A BROKEN CEILING AT TIMES WHICH SETTLES INTO THE LOWER RANGES OF VFR
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET LEAVING
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AS MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LOWER MI. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO FOG POTENTIAL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE, ALTHOUGH CLOUD LAYER WIND TRAJECTORIES HAVE
A LAKE HURON CONNECTION THAT REQUIRES MONITORING FOR POCKETS OF
STRATOCU TOWARD SUNRISE AND DURING SATURDAY MORNING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION... THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......AM
AVIATION.....BT
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