796
FXUS63 KDTX 031652
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF
M-59.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID
30S.
AVIATION
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LOWER MI INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND IS IN FULL CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD WITHIN THE
HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS IS BOOSTED BY AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF
THE LAKES AND BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARMER AIR AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALREADY HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL FIELD OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREAD OUT OVER WI ALONG WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS IS SUBJECT TO EROSION WHILE MOVING
THROUGH LOWER MI THIS EVENING BUT EVENTUALLY SOLIDIFIES INTO A VFR
MID LEVEL CEILING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION... THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
DISCUSSION...
GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID LEVELS (A 48 C DEW PT DEPRESSION AT 700
MB PER THE 00Z RAOB) ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN, WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TRANSIENT LOW CLOUDS SEEN TRAVERSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN, AS NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON MOISTENS THE LOW LEVELS.
SLOW RETURN EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY FACILITATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CU FIELD, HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S, AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH 11 C.
A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IS ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN 12-16Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS
LACKING, AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE GRADIENT/THETA-E REMAINS ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A NARROWING/WEAKENING MOISTURE AXIS
COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL (-
18 C AT 500 MB), WITH SEVERAL HIRES SOLUTIONS INDICATING LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE 8-15Z WINDOW WITH THE WAVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY, WHERE LOCAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AROUND SAGINAW BAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE (EURO/CMC) TRENDS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ARE FOR A MORE WITH AMPLIFIED NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY,
WITH THE PARENT 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC. THIS LEADS TO 850 MB
TEMPS TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH 0 TO 2 C MONDAY MORNING, SETTING US UP
FOR A COLD/FROST NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE STRONG WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID 30S.
MARINE...
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING, PROMOTING LIGHT WIND AND WAVES THAT PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
BRINGS AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE HURON THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND THEN VEERS TO
NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WITH
INCREASING GUSTINESS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON WHILE GUSTS HOLD IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE FARTHER SOUTH. THIS POST-FRONTAL GUSTINESS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LESS THAN A
20% PROBABILITY FOR GALES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON. WIND MAGNITUDE
SUBSIDES BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AM
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