369
FXUS63 KDVN 180335
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
935 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND A
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS.
- SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ARE POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
OUR FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK TONIGHT, AS CLOUDS IN OUR
SOUTH ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL IOWA. THIS SHOULD BRING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
BY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG POTENTAIL FOR FROM BEING
LONG LASTING TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 4 AM OR SO, WITH THIS RAIN
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN A
WIDESPREAD NATURE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 6 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COME TO
AN END QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FOG TONIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
AT 500 MB, A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BY 00 UT TUESDAY. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEEPENING AS
IT LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 09 UTC ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BY 15 (9AM) UTC AND THEN TO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 BY 18 (NOON) UTC. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND ALLOW FOR
SOME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, SHOWER
AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. MODEL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY
RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO AROUND
0.50 INCHES IN EASTERN CENTRAL IOWA. THE PROBABILITY 0F OVER A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 6 PM RANGES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT
IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES TO THE EAST.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON MONDAY MORNING AND TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA,
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL TIGHTEN
LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH. THE NBM IS SHOWING PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH <5% PROBABILITY OF
WINDS OVER 40 MPH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT
SHOW WINDS AROUND 38 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS
ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WIND GUSTS UP 35 MPH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
MONDAY NIGHT: DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO MINNESOTA PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARRIVE. RAINFALL OF 1+
INCHES IS POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
IN A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE 984 MB CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWARD
ACROSS MINNESOTA, MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME-FRAME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW FORMS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: GLOBAL MODELS ARE DRY ON SATURDAY BUT THE
GFS HAS A STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO SEE A
MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER THEM LATE THIS EVENING, AND THIS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE AND APPROACH OUR AREA
BY EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS AND
IFR VISIBILITY WILL SWEEP NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON,
BEFORE THE WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH. IN THE WAKE
OF RAINS, LOW CIGS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST BECOMING
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 32 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
DURING THE EVENING MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUATION OF IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED, AND
A STRONG CHANCE FOR LLWS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS WELL, DESPITE
STRONG SURFACE WINDS. WINDS 1200-2000 FT AGL WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 45 TO 65 KTS, CREATING A ABRUPT SPEED SHEAR
SITUATION FOR ANYONE ON TAKEOFF OR APPROACH MONDAY LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
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