193
FXUS66 KEKA 181329
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
529 AM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND CALM WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
BRIEF DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY'S
READING AS A BRIEF RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD, WITH HIGHS FROM MID
50'S TO MID 60'S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
TONIGHT. A BRIEF BURST OF ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
40-60 KTS LOW LEVEL JET BARRIER (925MB) LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED RIDGES IN
DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE MORE
PROMINENT RIDGES. AS RESULT, HAVE TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE WIND GUSTS FROM
25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A BROAD SWATH OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HREF PROBABILITY OF 6 HOURS PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN
1 INCH IS AROUND 40 TO 75% FOR LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST FACING HIGHER SLOPES FROM 5AM PM TO 11 AM WEDNESDAY
LOCAL TIME. RAINFALL TOTAL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTH COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
DEL NORTE COUNTY AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS MAY BE
LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS IN
TRINITY, MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
SHOWERY QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C TO -28C. SOME
SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH A COLD LAYER ALOFT OVER DEL NORTE AND
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE MODERATE SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS HOVER AROUND 5000
FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING, LOWERING TO 4000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS ON HIGHWAY 3 WILL SEE SOME SNOW, UP
TO 3 INCHES. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START SETTLING
IN BY END OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. /ZVS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. LATE TONIGHT, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE AVIATORS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS), WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS
AS SECONDARY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
19/05Z ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY WORSEN AFTER 19/08Z OR SO WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
ALONGSIDE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS FOR KCEC AND UP TO 25 KTS FOR KACV.
IN ADDITION, LLWS FROM 40 TO 55 KT AROUND 1000-2000 FEET AGL IN
THE COASTAL TERMINALS ARE LIKELY FROM 8Z. /ZVS
MARINE
A SHARP BOOST IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FORCED BY
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM RACING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FORCE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE NORTHER WATERS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.
STEEP WAVES WILL ALSO BUILD TUESDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. JUST WHEN THESE LOCALLY GENERATED SOUTHERLY
WAVES DIMISH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE PERSISTENT LONGER PERIOD
WESTERLY WAVES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 FEET.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ101-
102-104>106.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450-455-475.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ470.
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