707
FXUS66 KEKA 182311
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
311 PM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK HITTING RAIN SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND AND RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY CALM AND BEGIN TO DRY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AN ELONGATED BUT NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA HAVE ALREADY PROVIDED A STRONG SIGN OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. A MUCH STRONGER WALL OF RAIN IS ALREADY VISIBLE
OFFSHORE ON SATELLITE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE THE FIRST AND MOST NOTABLE IMPACT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. GUSTY WIND WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY AROUND
2100 TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE FAST
MOVING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ALONG IT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING 850 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 60 TO 70
MPH. GENERALLY STABLE AIR WILL LARGELY PREVENT STRONG WINDS FORM
MIXING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOST LIKELY GUSTS ONLY AROUND 30
MPH. THAT SAID, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VERY BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE AS
THE FRONT ITSELF PASSES THE AREA, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 0100 AND 0500
WEDNESDAY. WITHIN THAT WINDOW, BRIEF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED HEADLANDS AND RIDGES. THE HREF SHOWS A 70%
CHANCE OF ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN CRESCENT CITY, AND A 50%
CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FURTHER SOUTH AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY. SUCH
STRONG GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE FRONT
MOVES QUICKLY.
QUICK HITTING RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONT. RAIN WILL BE STRONGLY FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WITH 0.6 TO 1.2 INCHES MOST LIKELY ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY AND
0.2 TO 0.6 INCHES IN HUMBOLDT. LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND AND SOUTH
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. THOUGH OVERALL RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE MODERATE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL
IN 6 HOUR PERIOD RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE, WITH LITTLE RAIN LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY ALLOW (15% CHANCE) FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES UP TO 0.4 IN / HR. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A INCREASED
RISK OF DEBRIS AND VERY MINOR FLOODING FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. OTHERWISE. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 4500 FEET, LIMITING ANY SNOW CONCERNS TO ONLY THE VERY HIGHEST
PEAKS.
RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVES AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. SKIES
WILL MOST LIKELY START TO SCATTER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY PREVENT ANY UNUSUALLY COLD
OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ANYWHERE EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF TRINITY AND
NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES. RIDGING LATE THE THE WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLY EVEN A
RAGGED AND SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. A SHORTWAVE IN THE
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY GENERATE SOME MODERATE RAIN THIS WEEKEND,
BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. RAIN WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SHALLOW AND FOCUSED
ONLY ALONG THE COAST. /JHW
AVIATION
A STEADY STREAM OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUED IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, ALL THE TAF SITES REMAINED VFR WITH A FEW STRATUS SCUDS
ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND NEAR THE COAST EARLIER IN THE DAY.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY WORSEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT DUE TO A SPIRITED LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REV UP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR IMPACTFUL
LLWS (45-55 KNOTS) ALONG THE NW CALIFORNIA COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY AT
CEC AND ACV. THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO ALL
TERMINALS IN MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON, MVFR...THEN IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ACV
AND CEC. /TA
MARINE
A QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AS THE FRONT PASSES. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME
TO BUILD WITH THE WIND BUT WILL STILL LIKELY PEAK OVER 6 FEET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE A TURN MORE WESTERLY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT A BUILDING MID PERIOD SWELL UP TO 12
FEET WILL MAINTAIN A STEEP SEA STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WIND IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL BUILD
LATER IN THE WEEK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WIND WILL MAINTAIN
STEEPER SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THOUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
BE CALMER WITH ONLY MODEST SHORT PERIOD WAVES AND DECAYING WESTERLY
SWELLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
/JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ101-
102-104>106.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450-455-475.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ470.
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