252
FXUS66 KEKA 282302
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
402 PM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. RAINY AND MODERATELY
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 4000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON, LOWERING TO 3500 THIS EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVES OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOWED
COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30'S TO LOW 40'S. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR INTERIOR MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES FOR
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 32F. FOR AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY, AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
SUNDAY, ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVEN A COMPACT SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD
NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND HOW STRONG WIND SPEED WILL BE. A LOW LEVEL
JET IN ADVANCE WILL BRING A WAA IN FROM SOUTHWEST AND AID IN
RISING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 4000-6000 FEET ALONG WITH STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER 40 MPH ARE AROUND 30-50%
OVER THE KING RANGE AND DEL NORTE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH AT FORTUNA
MURRY FIELD, AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY, AND ALONG MENDOCINO COAST ON
SUNDAY. THERE ARE ABOUT 10 TO 15 MEMBERS FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES
THAT HAS WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE DOESN'T
EXCEPTIONALLY UNSTABLE FOR THE WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WITH THAT SAID, THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. STAY
TUNED!
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN IMPACT CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM WIND TO RAIN. SATURATED SOILS AND WEAKER DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS
WILL BOTH ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 2 TO 5 INCHES OF STEADY
RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY FOR POPULATED AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. LONG RANGE CNRFC GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SHOWS A ROUGHLY 20% CHANCE OF MAIN RIVERS REACHING MINOR
FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY DROP THROUGH THE EVENT, PARTICULARLY IN TRINITY
COUNTY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE
AROUND TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE GFS SHOWS SNOW LEVELS A SLOW AS
1500 FEET. THAT SAID, IMPACTS WILL MOSTLY BE RESTRICTED TO TRINITY
COUNTY (MOSTLY ALONG HIGHWAYS 3 AND 36) WITH LITTLE CHANCE (LESS
THAN 20%) OF EVEN 3 INCHES OF SNOW ON ANY HIGHWAY PASS IN OTHER
COUNTIES. ZVS/JHW
AVIATION
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPORARY VISIBILITY REDUCTION
WITH MORE INTENSE SHOWERS THAT PASS OVER TERMINALS. COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NBM INDICATES
THE PROBABILITY FOR WORST CEILINGS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE GREATEST IN THE 12Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME. A 50% CHANCE OF CEILINGS
IN THE MVFR RANGE (BELOW 3K FEET) FOR UKI IN THIS TIME FRAME, AND
EVEN A 30-40% CHANCE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS OF CEC AND ACV.
WINDS OVERALL AT ALL TERMINALS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
NBM IS OVERALL NOT DETECTING MUCH WITH LOWERED VISIBILITY (OUTSIDE
OF WHAT MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY). TURBULENCE
SIGNALS ARE SHOWING UP A LITTLE BIT HIGHER IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME FOR ALL LOCATIONS, AND MAY NEED TO KEEP THIS IN MIND.
MARINE
STILL SOME STEEP ENOUGH SEAS TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LARGE WEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO DECAY. THE FOCUS TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR GALES WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A QUICKLY
APPROACHING STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THE SIGNAL FOR GALES HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT AND INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A GALE WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ110-
111-113-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455-
470-475.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ455-470-475.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page