418
FXUS66 KEKA 011147 RRA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
438 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
GENERAL GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET ELEVATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AS WELL. LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
-CONTINUED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL NEAR THE COAST.
-GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REGION INTO LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN LAKE
COUNTY (UP TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 40 MPH. 25 TO 30 MPH
FOR MOST OTHER PLACES)
-PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUOUSLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
-HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR TRINITY AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AT COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED
AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION. THE COLD AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO AID IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS, FROM 25 TO 30
MPH, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN LAKE COUNTY
THROUGH THE SAME TIMEFRAME.
MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTS ARE ONGOING OVER TRINITY COUNTY AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR HUMBOLDT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH
SNOW LEVELS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER SNOW LEVELS DURING
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE MOST LIKELY FALLEN
IN SOME AREAS AT ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 2500 FEET. HEAVY SNOW WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT TODAY WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
HIGHWAY 3 NORTH OF WEAVERVILLE AND HAYFORK SUMMIT, HWY JUNCTION 36
AND 3 AT SOUTH FORK MOUNTAIN, HWY 299 AT BERRY SUMMIT, BUCKHORN
SUMMIT AND OREGON MOUNTAIN.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND DEVIATIONS:
RAIN COULD BE HEIGHTENED DUE TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION, POSSIBLY CREATING INCREASED RAIN RATES AND A SMALL
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
COLD AIR ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR LOWER SNOW LEVELS ACROSS NW
CALIFORNIA, BUT SHOWERS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY BY THIS TIME.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW A STRONG DIURNAL PATTERN WITH SNOW LEVELS
DIPPING TO AROUND 2500 FEET AT NIGHT (NBM) AND JUMPING ABOVE 3000
FEET DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
BE VERY INCONSISTENT AND LIKELY NOT VERY IMPACTFUL. MODELS COME
INTO MORE AGREEMENT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
ANOTHER NIGHT OF CHAOTIC CONDITIONS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUES AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGRATES TOWARD THE OR COAST, PRODUCING A STEADY STREAM OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. PERIODS OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VIZ ARE
PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY GUSTY WSW WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND REDUCED CEILINGS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL
HAIL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR NEARING CEC AND ACV WITH STRONGER
CELLS. UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING - HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE IN
RAINFALL AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY NW WINDS BEGINNING AROUND 15-16Z AS
THE LOW AXIS SWINGS INTO THE NORCAL COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS - HREF PROBABILITIES ARE
<30% FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.
MARINE
LOW END GALE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SUNRISE AS A STRONG LOW PROPELS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND WEAK WATERSPOUTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NW AND REMAIN ELEVATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND WEAKENS. ALREADY STEEP WIND WAVES WILL
BE REINFORCED BY A LARGE MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL FILLING INTO THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 15 TO 17 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC - HREF PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS >30 MPH BECOME ISOLATED TO
THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. NEAR ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ107-108.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450-
455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470-475.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.
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