193
FXUS66 KEKA 012241
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
341 PM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL ENDS AS A COLD UPPER LOW PROGRESSES SOUTH. CLEARING AND
DRYING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. A SHARP WARMUP
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH AS A COLD, UPPER LOW PROCEEDS SOUTH. INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING, ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING PROLIFIC SMALL
HAIL ON OCCASION. THOUGH THE USUAL POST FRONTAL DETERRENTS FOR
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EXIST TONIGHT, THAT IS LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE, AND CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING FOG, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF OUR
INLAND LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN. A
FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR INTERIOR
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTY. THERE ARE ALSO FROSTY TEMPERATURES OF
36 DEGREES OR LESS FORECAST FOR INTERIOR HUMBOLDT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER THERE FOR THE REASONS OUTLINED ABOVE. GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN FOR INTERIOR HUMBOLDT TODAY, SO IT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED,
AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED IS DRYING AND CLEARING
OCCURS TRENDS SOONER. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR COOLER TEMPS AND
FROST/FREEZE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
A STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN AMPLIFY IN FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL NICELY WARM IN
RESPONSE. THE APEX OF THE WARMING WILL BE SATURDAY, WHEN LOW TO
MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR THE COAST, AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FROM A CLIPPING WEATHER SYSTEM. IF CLOUDCOVER ARRIVES EARLIER ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT. CURRENTLY,
RAINFALL LOOKS LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH PROBABILITY OF 24
HOUR RAINFALL OVER 0.50 INCH 40-60% FOR THE HUMBOLDT THROUGH DEL
NORTE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THERE
ARE CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY LOW FOR WIND GUSTS OVER
25 MPH. /JJW
AVIATION
ONCE AGAIN CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH
DIFFICULT TO TIME PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. IMPACTS IN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE. BUT SHOULD
DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY BREEZES INCREASE AND WARMER AIR
RESULTS IN GREATER STABILITY. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AFTER SURFACE WIND DECOUPLE LATER THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE
KUKI WILL FOG UP IS NOT HIGH WITH CLOUD COVER AND MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT. DB
MARINE
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR STEEP WESTERLY SWELL AND
STEEPER NW WIND WAVES CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE FORCE GUST ARE STILL NOT IMPOSSIBLE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AND HREF MEANS. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST IN THE LEE
OF CAPE, HOWEVER THE DURATION OF THE GALE GUST APPEARS SHORT LIVED
AND CONFINED JUST DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS CLOSER
TO THE COAST. STEEP NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON WED,
HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MODERATE TI FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES
AROUND 20KT AND STEEP WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE WED INTO THU, AND
SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND. HOW STRONG WINDS GET IS NOT
CERTAIN, BUT CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE HAS LOW PROBABILITIES (<20% CHANCE
FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT. NOW THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AS
A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL GROUP BUILDS. DB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ107-108.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ470.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.
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