154
FXUS66 KEKA 231156
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
456 AM PDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH PLEASANT DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE LAST FEW EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FIZZLED
OUT OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE TRINITY HORN,
SISKIYOU AND THE NORTH VALLEY OF SHASTA COUNTY. THIS, IN ALL
INDICATIONS, IS A PRECURSOR TO MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO COME AS
COLLECTIVE ALLOWANCE MODELS AND AGGREGATE PARAMETERS LIKE CWASP SHOW
ELEVATED CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NBM
PROBABILITIES RISE FROM 12% THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20% BY THE
EVENING IN EASTERN TRINITY AND MENDOCINO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS BORDERING
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF GLENN AND TEHAMA. ALSO INCLUDING THE YOLLA
BOLLY'S AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS WELL, ACCORDING TO HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES
AND THE NATIONAL BLEND. THAT SAID, THIS WILL BE LOCALIZED AND SPARSE
IN COVERAGE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED TO THE
INTERIOR EASTERN PERIPHERY, BORDERING THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE OF A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES OVERHEAD. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND CURB THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN, BUT ONLY THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES HAVE CLOSE TO A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE MOISTURE AROUND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
50S AGAIN WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES. SATURDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE COLDER AREAS OF THE
INTERIOR DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. SUNDAY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO FINALLY CLEAR FULLY, BUT HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S. /MKK /EYS
AVIATION
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS MORNING AT KCEC BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE HELPED
CLEAR OUT KACV THIS MORNING, IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO VFR AS
1500FT CEILINGS HAVE ERODED, THOUGH COASTAL STRATUS LINGERS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND DECOUPLED VALLEYS. COASTAL STRATUS HAS MADE
ITS WAY INTO INTERIOR MENDOCINO AND COULD IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT KUKI IF IT ADVECTS INTO THE VALLEY. AS OF 12Z THE MOUNTAINS
ARE STILL BLOCKING THE PROGRESSION.
MARINE
GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE CAPES AND BEYOND
10 MILES BUT ARE EXPECTED TO END AT 3PM WEDNESDAY AND THIS LOOKS ON
TRACK. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO THE BE THE LIGHTEST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO
THE NORTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT TIME WHERE THEY ARE
SOUTHERLY ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE EXACT
TIMING ON THIS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
THE WINDS WILL BE GALE FORCE, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS IT COMES INTO
RANGE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. MKK/TRN
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ107-108.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470-475.
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