287
FXUS66 KEKA 151111
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
411 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS TO PERIODICALLY INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS, WITH INCREASING STRENGTH SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
A MIX OF COASTAL AND INLAND VALLEY STRATUS WITH SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO VIEWED ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING
AHEAD OF IT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY, AND WILL BRING
AT MOST LIGHT DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR NORTH COAST OR A FEW LIGHT
SPRINKLES FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SUBTLE,
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN INCREASING THE COASTAL STRATUS
TONIGHT, WHILE PERHAPS COAXING OUT SOME MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT
DRIZZLE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, AND WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE IN FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR THE FAR NORTH COAST. A WETTING RAINFALL BY
DEFINITION (AMOUNTS OF A 0.10 INCH OR MORE) MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. PROBABILITIES FOR A WETTING RAIN ONLY REACH THE LOW 40S
IN DEL NORTE COUNTY, AND QUICKLY DROP OFF SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO LIKELY CLIP NE TRINITY
COUNTY. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IS EARLIER
SATURDAY BEFORE PEAK HEATING, AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY
INTERIOR FROST SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY TRINITY COUNTY.
FROST GENERATING TEMPERATURES LESS THEN 36 DEGREES WILL BE
CONDITIONAL FOR THE TIMING OF CLOUDCOVER CLEARING AND HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS REALIZED, AS THE DEWPOINT MAY BE HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CHANCES FOR GUSTS OVER 25 MPH MODERATE TO HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE COAST
AND INTERIOR RIDGES. A SECOND TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION AS AN INSIDE SLIDER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND THIS
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE NORTHERLY WINDS. PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH ARE 44 TO OVER 60% FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL HEADLANDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE HIGH
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE THE NORTHERLIES WINDS ACCELERATED BY
THE CAPE WILL EXPAND ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TO START NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST. CLUSTERS REVEAL CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR WEAK, CLIPPING SHORTWAVES TO BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINFALL OR SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM NBM ARE HOWEVER NEAR ZERO
NEXT WEEK, THUS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. JJW
AVIATION
AN ELEVATED LAYER OF MARINE STRATUS HAS FORMED AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY AND THE EEL RIVER DELTA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS, OTHER, MORE EXPOSED AREAS ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER,
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MARINE INVERSION, HOWEVER
IS VERY WEAK, WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING EXISTING
STRATUS WILL BE QUICK TO CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. THOUGH ANY MARINE
STRATUS WILL REMAIN WEAK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST HIGHER CHANCES OF MARGINAL IFR CONDITIONS
(30% CHANCE NEAR ACV). INTERIOR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
VFR.
/JHW
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT,
MAINTAINING STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS. NORTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHLTY
CALM FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS DROPPING BELOW 20 KTS,
BUT REAMING HIGHER IN THE SOUTH. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND SOME
MARGINAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS WHOLE PERIOD, THE SEA
STATE WILL BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY CONTROLLED BY SHORT PERIOD WAVES
WITH ONLY A VERY MINOR NORTHWEST SWELL UP TO 3 FEET. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ475.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ475.
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