650
FXUS66 KEKA 152146
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
246 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS.
A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS TO PERIODICALLY INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS, WITH INCREASING STRENGTH SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM RIDING DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON IN THE INLAND AREAS
WHILE THE COAST LINGERS IN THE UPPER 50S. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. FRIDAY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RAIN OR DRIZZLE. FOR THE DEL NORTE COUNTY INLAND AREAS
THE NBM IS SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN TRINITY ARE ONLY SHOWING A 5
TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH LESS THAN A 5
PERCENT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG
THE COAST AND UP TO 40 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER FOR THE INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS
ONLY AROUND 70 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE
COAST. SUNDAY INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START WARMING
BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHTS WITH SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
POTENTIALLY SEEING FROST IF THEY CAN REMAIN CLEAR.
NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
AND THE INLAND AREAS COULD SEE HIGHS OVER 90 DEGREES. CURRENTLY
THE NBM IS SHOWING A 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THE INLAND
VALLEYS EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING
HIGH PRESSURE, BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVES MIGHT MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. MKK
AVIATION
STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS BLOCKED BY THE COASTAL TERRAIN
WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
OVER HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL DELTA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE HIGHLY PROBABLE
FOR KACV WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
SPORADIC MVFR OR IFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KCEC ONCE
NORTHERLIES SUBSIDE AND SMALL SCALE EDDIES GENERATE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEARSHORE. OTHERWISE FOR UKI, VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH IS EXPECTED. NOW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 25 KT OR SO.
THERE IS A 50% CHANCE FOR TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
SMALL AIRCRAFT, PARTICULARLY AROUND KACV ONCE SURFACE GUSTINESS
DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR TURBULENT FLOW AND SHALLOW
MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY
INTERIOR (KING RANGE) AND MUCH OF WESTERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. DB
MARINE
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC COUPLED WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OVER THE
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLIES WITH TO 25
TO 30KT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE TO 10 KT OR
LESS NEARSHORE BY LATE EVENING, HOWEVER. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A COUPLE OF EXPANSION FANS IN THE LEE OF CAPE
MENDO AND CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGEST
EXPANSION FAN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT ARE HIGHLY PROBABLE BASED ON HREF. GALE WARNING
REMAINS MARGINAL WITH COVERAGE OF GUSTS > 35KT LESS THAN 50% FOR
MARINE ZONES 475 AND 455.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL START TO RELAX NORTH OF CAPE MENDO ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO SUBSIDE IN RESPONSE NORTH OF CAPE MENDO. SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO,
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 25-30
KT FOR A CONTINUATION OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WAVES WILL ALSO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STEEP AND UNCOMFORTABLE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO; AROUND 6
TO 8 FT AT 7 SECONDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDO BY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT GUSTS OVER 35 KT IN THE LEE OF
CAPE MENDO BY SUNDAY. DB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.
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