158
FXUS66 KEKA 161120
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
420 AM PDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND PRESENT LOW
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS, WITH
INCREASED STRENGTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND THEN
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A SCAN OF THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVELS A
WEAK FRONT DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BETTER
DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS ALSO OBSERVED WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD WELL
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHWARD TODAY, WORKING ITS WAY OVER N CA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
SATURDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WHILE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
WEAK ONSHORE WINDS AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING. THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. A
BRIEF WINDOW OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PASS OVER
TRINITY COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY OUTSIDE THE COUNTY, WITH TIMING FALLING OUTSIDE
OF PEAK HEATING HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND UP TO 40 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN
INLAND AREAS ARE PROBABLE AND FORECAST. SIMILAR WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS MAY REACH FROST-
DEVELOPING LEVELS SUNDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS MONDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY MORNING, FROST WILL BE CONDITIONAL TO THE EFFECTIVE CLEARING
OF CLOUDCOVER AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AFTER ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
MANAGE TO OCCUR. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE, BUT WITH DRYING AND CLEAR SKIES, MONDAY
MORNING MAY END UP BEING THE COLDER OF THE TWO FOR SOME SELECT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.
A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN. NBM IS SHOWING A 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THE INLAND
VALLEYS EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES. A COUPLE MOSTLY DRY FRONTS MAKE
MAKE IT OVER THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN
SOME ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS, AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE OREGON BORDER OR COASTAL, LIGHT
DRIZZLE. JJW
AVIATION
DESPITE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOW MARINE STRATUS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING, ALL COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE REMAINED
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT SAID, A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING REMAINS LIKELY (50% CHANCE)
ESPECIALLY AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY. ANY MARINE INFLUENCE THAT DOES FORM
THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT TO VFR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING MAY BE A BIT DELAYED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS THANKS TO
WEAKER WINDS NEAR SHORE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY IMPLY
A STRONGER BUT ELEVATED MARINE LAYER WILL FORM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE RIGHT ALONG SHORE. /JHW
MARINE
NORTH WINDS HAVE GENERALS MODERATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
ONLY VERY ISOLATED AREAS MAINTAINING GUSTS OVER 21 KTS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CALM THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
MUCH STRONGER WINDS AND ISOLATED MARGINAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. DURING THIS WHOLE PERIOD, THE SEA STATE WILL BE ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY CONTROLLED BY SHORT PERIOD WAVES WITH ONLY A VERY MINOR
NORTHWEST SWELL UP TO 3 FEET. A SIMILAR PATTERN OF SHORT PERIODS OF
CALM BROKEN UP BY PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
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