049
FXUS66 KEKA 140705
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1205 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON COASTAL HEADLANDS AND IN LAKE COUNTY.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR HEATRISK FORECAST
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
* SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR THIS
WEEK, WITH ONLY MINOR HEATRISK EXPECTED.
* GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FORECAST ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
* BREEZY WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, KEEPING A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UPWARD, WITH MOST INTERIOR
VALLEYS SEEING MID TO UPPER 80'S BY SUNDAY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AGAIN, WITH HIGH NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 20-25 MPH PEAK GUSTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS
REMAIN ON RIDGES AND COASTAL HEADLANDS, WHERE GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD OUR
AREA, WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND
KEEPING INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MODERATED. THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY. THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE
INTERIOR ALSO IS UNLIKELY AS INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN MONDAY, RETURNING THE WARMING TREND TO
THE INTERIOR. NBM IS SHOWING OVER 50% PROBABILITIES FOR 90'S IN THE
WARMEST INTERIOR VALLEYS (EASTERN TRINITY, EASTERN MENDOCINO, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE) BY WEDNESDAY. WESTERN MENDOCINO, INCLUDING UKIAH,
HAVE LOWER PROBABILITIES (~20%) AS MARINE AIR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. CLUSTERS ARE STARTING TO COALESCE AROUND A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LOW AS NBM PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS AROUND 25%
OVER DEL NORTE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND
PERHAPS INCREASED WINDS. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO HAVE THIS
PROGRESSING AS AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE OF SYSTEM, MOVING TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST, WHICH ARE USUALLY INDICATIVE OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERHAPS
GUSTY WINDS. THIS COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED. JB
AVIATION...14/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAFS
AERODROME TERMINALS. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOPED IN THE
VICINITY OF HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT, WHILE
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST STREAM ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TO BRING HIGH END IFR
TO MVFR CEILING TO ACV EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 35% CHANCE
FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW FL010 AT ACV. OTHERWISE, ANY LOW CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO LIFT AND MIX OUT WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT CEC WHERE GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 27 MPH IS LIKELY. WEAKER OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH FOR ACV AND UKI.
MARINE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. LOCALLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DOWNWIND
OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND POINT SAINT GEORGE. THE SEA STATE WILL BE
LARGELY DOMINATED BY STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES. A SMALL
SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2-3 FEET AT 19 TO 20 SECONDS WILL
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND RETREAT TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455-
470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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