733
FXUS66 KEKA 141932
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1232 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON COASTAL HEADLANDS AND IN LAKE COUNTY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR HEATRISK FORECAST THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS CIRCULATING IN THE NE
PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY, KEEPING A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS SEEING MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S BY SUNDAY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS AGAIN, WITH HIGH NBM PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 20-25 MPH PEAK
GUSTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS REMAIN ON RIDGES AND COASTAL HEADLANDS,
WHERE GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA, WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES
BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND KEEPING INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
MODERATED. THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK DRY. THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE INTERIOR ALSO IS UNLIKELY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN MONDAY, RETURNING THE WARMING TREND TO
THE INTERIOR. NBM IS SHOWING OVER 50-60% PROBABILITIES FOR 90'S IN
THE WARMEST INTERIOR VALLEYS (EASTERN TRINITY, EASTERN MENDOCINO,
AND SOUTHERN LAKE) BY WEDNESDAY. WESTERN MENDOCINO, INCLUDING UKIAH,
HAVE LOWER PROBABILITIES (~20%) AS MARINE AIR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LONG-RANGE MODEL CLUSTERS ARE STARTING TO
COALESCE AROUND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW AS NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT OR
ABOVE 0.01" OF PRECIPITATION IS AROUND 25% OVER DEL NORTE FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE A COOLING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WINDS. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO HAVE THIS PROGRESSING AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER TYPE OF SYSTEM, MOVING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, WHICH ARE
USUALLY INDICATIVE OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. THIS
COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A SMALL BAND OF
TRANSIENT COASTAL STRATUS BRIEFLY IMPACTED ACV WITH MVFR CIGS, BUT
THAT ACTIVITY CLEARED OUT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AT CEC. AS THE WINDS EASE THIS EVENING, THE
STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND THE EEL RIVER.
EXPANSION INTO ACV AND NORTHERLY TRANSPORT ALONG A COASTAL EDDY TO
CEC IS THEN PROBABLE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT, BUT LIKELY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DEEPENING IN THE MARINE LAYER WILL
OCCUR IN RESPONSE. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN MVFR, WITH CHANCES FOR
FURTHER LOWERING INTO IFR LEVELS. MODELS CAN SOMETIMES
UNDERESTIMATE THE DEEPENING EFFECT OF SHORTWAVES, BUT WITH THE
WEAKNESS OF THIS ONE THE EFFECTS MAY BE MUTED.
CONFIDENCE: THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS (INCREASING TO 70%
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING). LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR LOWERING TO IFR
LEVELS (40% FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING). IF THE SHORTWAVE HAS LESS
INFLUENCE ON THE MARINE LAYER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR CEILING
HEIGHTS TO DIP BELOW 500 FT (20%).
MARINE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. LOCALLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DOWNWIND
OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND POINT SAINT GEORGE. THE SEA STATE WILL BE
LARGELY DOMINATED BY STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES. A SMALL
SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2-3 FEET AT 19 TO 20 SECONDS WILL
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
AND RETREAT TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455-
470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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