167
FXUS66 KEKA 150702
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1202 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR HEATRISK FORECAST
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WINDS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS CIRCULATING IN THE NE
PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, KEEPING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND UPWARDS AGAIN TODAY, WITH 80S
FORECAST FOR MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN THE
WARMEST. WINDS EASE TODAY AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL REMAIN LOW AS
THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE INTERIOR ALSO
REMAINS LOW AS INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN MONDAY, RETURNING THE WARMING TREND TO
THE INTERIOR. NBM IS SHOWING 60-90% PROBABILITIES FOR 90S IN THE
WARMEST INTERIOR VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY. LONG-RANGE MODEL CLUSTERS ARE
STARTING TO COALESCE AROUND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD,WITH AROUND A 40%
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN DEL NORTE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF DEL NORTE.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR TREND DOWNWARD. HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIP IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY, AND WILL IMPACT
BOTH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOW DRAMATIC THE COOLING TREND
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO HAVE THIS
PROGRESSING AS AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE OF SYSTEM, WHICH ARE TYPICALLY
WARMER, DRIER, AND WINDIER. THIS COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN,
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TRENDING IN THE WETTER DIRECTION.
AVIATION...15/06Z TAFS
GUSTY NORTHERLIES DIMINISHING AS OF 4Z FOR
KCEC WITH FIGHT CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COULD SUPPORT THESE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH A BIT OF CLEARING OR LIFT. KACV IS IN SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALBEIT LESS GUSTY AND THE PROBABILITY OF <2000FT CEILINGS
AT 62% VERSUS 25% FOR KCEC AT 11Z-13Z WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT
EXPECTED TIME FOR CLOUD COVER FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SUNDAY
EVENING AROUND 6Z COULD LIKELY BE LIFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AND HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER WHICH ALIGNS TIME WISE WITH WHAT OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES. EXPECT STRATUS TO BE MINIMALLY INTRUSIVE FOR FLIGHT OPS
TONIGHT. /EYS
MARINE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. LOCALLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DOWNWIND
OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND POINT SAINT GEORGE. THE SEA STATE WILL BE
LARGELY DOMINATED BY STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES. A SMALL
SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 2-3 FEET AT 19 TO 20 SECONDS WILL
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
AND RETREAT TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455-
470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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