359
FXUS66 KEKA 020829
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
129 AM PDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE DECREASED, BUT UP TO 20%
CHANCE REMAINS OVER TRINITY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OBSERVED THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY SUBSIDED. THE MID TO UPPER LOW DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY
WEAKENS AND BEGINS PULLING EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER E AND NE TRINITY COUNTY. ANY STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO FORM WILL BE ISOLATED WITH UP TO 20% CHANCE OVER
THE THE YOLLA BOLLYS AND THE TRINITY HORN. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
TREND DEEPER, WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAINTAIN CLOUDY AND
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MUCH MOSTLY DRY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HOWEVER BRING SOME SUBTLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT, AS
WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (UP TO 5%) FOR
SOME LATE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN NE TRINITY AS
THE TROUGH PASSES THURSDAY.
GUSTY WESTERLY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH. COOLER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
RADAR SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AT 06Z ISSUANCE. OVERALL, THE PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS LIFR
ALONG THE COAST ARE 70-90%, SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT ACV. PROBABILITY OF
LOWER VISIBILITY NEAR 1/2SM OR LESS IS STRONGER THAN THE SIGNAL FOR
CEC. FOR NOW, GOING MORE WITH PERSISTENCE AND AGAINST THE LATEST
PROBABILITY FORECAST OF ONLY ABOUT 30% FOR LIFR VISIBILITY AT CEC,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR
CEILINGS TO IMPROVE ARRIVES QUICKER FOR CEC, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
NEAR ACV WILL LOSE THE STRATUS DECK. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS PICK UP
FOR ALL TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS, WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS FOR OUTER WATERS, AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONGER WINDS
WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF POINT ST. GEORGE AND CAPE MENDOCINO ESPECIALLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE RELAXING A BIT. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY TO IMPROVE FOR ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WIND ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN
THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OBSERVED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY SUBSIDED. THE MID TO UPPER LOW DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND BEGINS PULLING EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER E AND NE TRINITY COUNTY.
STORM THAT MANAGE TO FORM WILL BE ISOLATED WITH UP TO 20% CHANCE
OVER THE THE YOLLA BOLLYS AND THE TRINITY HORN. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL TREND DEEPER THIS WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY PULL MARINE
INFLUENCE FURTHER INLAND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MUCH MOSTLY DRY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HOWEVER BRING SOME SUBTLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT, AS
WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (UP TO 5%) FOR
SOME LATE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN NE TRINITY AS
THE TROUGH PASSES THURSDAY.
LOWER DAYTIME RH'S AND GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THU AND FRI AS THIS TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATE HEATRISK AND MID 90S BY SUNDAY. FURTHER WARMING IS
LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN REGION.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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