971
FXUS66 KEKA 050702
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1202 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH MONDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO BUILD BACK IN AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S FOR MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS
COOLER, BUT STILL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
IN MOST AREAS. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT THE MARINE
LAYER MAY START TO RETURN AND BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE COAST BRINGS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (5% OR HIGHER) OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. SO FAR THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING INTERIOR DEL NORTE AND
NORTHERN TRINITY. INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE BOTH LOOK
MEAGER AS OF NOW, BUT SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE LOW COULD CHANGE THIS
CONSIDERABLY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
AREA AND MOST INLAND VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARKS. NBM IS SHOWING AN OVER
80% CHANCE FOR THE VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND HUMBOLDT TO SEE TRIPLE
DIGITS, WHILE INTERIOR MENDOCINO AND LAKE IS SEEING AROUND 50-60%
CHANCES. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR
HEATRISK. JB/MKK
AVIATION
OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY COME DOWN
BELOW THE 2000 TO 3000 FT HEIGHTS THAT LINGERED MOST OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
EASING TO AROUND 3 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT KACV. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT KCEC WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND LOW VIZ OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MIST OR DRIZZLE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY (20 TO 50%).
MARINE
NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE OUTER WATERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWN WINDS STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE WITH GALE GUSTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY (NBM 50 TO 70% CHANCE) IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. THERE STILL EXISTS SOME MODEL SPREAD IN POTENTIAL COVERAGE
SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH INTO Z475. STEEP AND HAZARDOUS WIND WAVES 9
TO 12 FEET ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS,
POTENTIALLY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS BRIEFLY.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE MINIMUM RH'S BECOME DRIER.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN GOOD EXCEPT
FOR A FEW EXPOSED RIDGES WHERE LOW RH'S MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY AND THIS
POSES A LOW RISK FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY EJECT N-NE BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS OVER
THE AREA. MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER HUMIDITY ARE HIGHLY
PROBABLE (80% CHANCE) IN THE INTERIOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ470.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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