032
FXUS66 KEKA 062033
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
133 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY IN THE
INTERIOR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOT WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO GET PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS WILL
BRING SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND SOME OFFSHORE
(WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST) WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE NORTH. THIS MAY DELAY THE STRATUS RETURNING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME BACK EVENTUALLY.
THIS MAY ALSO PUSH SOME SMOKE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE
ONGOING FIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTIES.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER MAY KEEP LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE COAST
SLIGHTLY COOLER. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY SEE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN RESPONSE
TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INSTABILITY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
WITH THE LOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY MAY PUSH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
INTO EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. THE INSTABILITY ALOFT APPEARS TO
BE THERE AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THROUGH NEARLY MIDNIGHT. IT
JUST REMAINS TO BE SEEN IN THE DYNAMICS FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING
AROUND THE LOW WILL BE THERE. SO, DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEL NORTE COUNTY
THROUGH NEARLY MIDNIGHT. ENDED THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST INLAND FROM
CRESCENT CITY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY THE BETTER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INSTABILITY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN TRINITY COUNTY, BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FASTER AND THIS WILL MOVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND THE CORE OF THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDDAY AND PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMING, BUT OVERALL FAIRLY
SIMILAR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 ON THURSDAY IN
MANY OF THE INLAND AREAS. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO THE HOTTEST DAY
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER 100 IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MODERATE HEAT RISK TO THE AREA. FRIDAY
THERE IS A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE WARMER VALLEYS EXCEEDING
100 DEGREES. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED STARTING ON SATURDAY. MKK
AVIATION
A STRONG MARINE INVERSION KEEPS LIFR CEILINGS OVER ACV AND
CEC THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED EDDIES MAY CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF
THE COAST INUNDATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT MUCH CLEARING
UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OFFSHORE. HREF
INDICATES A PERIOD MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS BENEATH SCATTERED CEILINGS
THROUGH 06 TO 10Z AS NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS STRATUS FROM
QUICKLY REDEVELOPING. STILL, IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT BOTH TERMINALS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SHIFT WSW. EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY FOR CEC
BUT HREF AND MODEL SOUNDINGS TRENDS TOWARD GREATER LOW CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP SEAS ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED ON BUOYS AS THEY PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS. GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IN Z470. ISOLATED
GUSTS 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHERN Z450 NEAR
CRESCENT CITY. STEEP AND HAZARDOUS WIND WAVES 9 TO 13 FEET ARE
FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CYCLES OFF THE CA COAST -
WINDS MAY BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE COAST.
LONG RANGE MODELS BEGINNING TO IDENTIFY ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
NORTHERLIES MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SE.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY WITH HIGH 90S
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GOOD INTO MID NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR A FEW EXPOSED
RIDGES WHERE LOW RH'S MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HELP KEEP THE MARINE CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE COAST, WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOWER
RECOVERIES IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
THIS LOW ALSO BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE (10% OR HIGHER) FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. CHANCES REMAIN LOW AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN MEAGER, BUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW
COULD CHANGE THIS IN EITHER DIRECTION STILL.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY EJECT N-NE BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS A MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS OVER
THE AREA. MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER HUMIDITY ARE HIGHLY
PROBABLE IN THE INTERIOR LATE NEXT WEEK. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY IN MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RHS AND
MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ455-470.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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