880
FXUS66 KEKA 080704
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1204 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WARMING IS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
WARMING FRIDAY AND HEAT CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED RIGHT OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INTERIOR DEL NORTE IN THE EVENING, BUT THESE HAS
SINCE MOVED NORTH. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, ALONG WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80'S OR LOW 90'S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. OTHER
THAN COASTAL DRIZZLE, PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMISH AS THE
LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT CHANCES REMAIN
LOW, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING HOT
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE INTERIOR. NBM PROBABILITIES OF SEEING
OVER 100 DEGREES IS AROUND 30%-50% THURSDAY FOR MOST INTERIOR
VALLEYS. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO OVER 90% BY FRIDAY WITH AROUND
50% PROBABILITIES OF 105 OR GREATER. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED, MEANING HEAT WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE
SENSITIVE AND WITHOUT SUFFICIENT COOLING. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES REMAINING
POSSIBLE. JB
AVIATION
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF DEL NORTE
COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR FLIGHT OPERATIONS AS OUTFLOWS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VIA RADAR, AS OF 02Z. CONVECTIVE
MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL EASE BY 5Z OR SO. OTHERWISE, IFR
STRATUS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 03Z AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
DRIVE THE CLOUD DECK INTO THE COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
STRONG INVERSION KEEPING CEILINGS <1000 FEET WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES LIKELY OVERNIGHT (HREF 50% CHANCE <1 SM THROUGH 15Z).
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRATUS
REACHING UKI UP THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE (20%
PROBABILITY).
MARINE
STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SQUARE WAVES CONTINUE TO EASE AFTER THE
FETCH AREA HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS CONDITIONS FOR THE INNER
WATERS HAVE IMPROVED. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CYCLES OFF THE CA COAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY CALM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELL FILLS INTO THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLIES IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SE. NBM AND MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 50 TO
60% CHANCE OF GALE GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING
EARLY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES NUDGE DOWNWARD TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH 80'S AND 90'S EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER-LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA, BRINGING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTERNOON RHS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES GENERALLY REMAIN
GOOD ASIDE FROM THE EXPOSED RIDGES IN THE THERMAL BELT. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER HUMIDITY ARE LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR LATE THIS
WEEK. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN MOST OF THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS BY FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RHS AND MODERATE OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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