974
FXUS66 KEKA 120730
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1230 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE. INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING A LASTING
COOLING TREND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COASTAL STRATUS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN PERSISTENT AND KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES
MODERATED.
DISCUSSION
THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE EAST. STILL, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HOT FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 95 AND
105. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TRINITY AND
KLAMATH RIVER VALLEYS. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES, WITH OVERNIGHT FOG AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES AS THE
TROUGH MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM, BUT CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS (LOW
TO MID 90S) BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. AREAS OF TRINITY, LAKE, AND
MENDOCINO COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
STRATUS AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS THIS WEEKEND, LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NBM IS SHOWING
DEL NORTE COUNTY HAVING AROUND A 25% CHANCE FOR 0.1" OF RAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE
LOW ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL STRONGLY INFLUENCE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES. CURRENTLY, THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS ARE COASTAL DRIZZLE WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
AVIATION
STRATUS REORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATED INTO AN ENVELOPING
BLANKET, BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN AND DROPPING VISIBILITY TO LIFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KCEC AND KACV. ONSHORE WINDS, ALTHOUGH LIGHT,
HAVE FURTHER ENHANCED THE ADVECTION OF THE 200 FOOT STRATUS DECK
WHICH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INLAND AT LEAST UP TO THE RIVER VALLEYS
ADJACENT TO THE COAST. NBM HAS LOW CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH DIURNAL BROKEN AND SCATTERED SKIES. KCEC HAS A 35% LIKELIHOOD
OF 500 FT CEILINGS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WHICH LIKELY MEANS
A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT, POSSIBLY MVFR. FLIGHT CATEGORIES TUESDAY EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE DEGRADING AS PROBABILITY FOR <1000FT CEILINGS
IS ALMOST 100% WITH A 60% CHANCE OF <500FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR
KACV WITH A STRONGER PROBABILITY OF LONGER DURATION LOW CEILINGS
<500FT TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KUKI
SHOULD PREVAIL VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. /EYS
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE FILLS INTO THE COAST, ACCOMPANIED
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG LEADING TO VISIBILITIES <1/2NM. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHTLY MILDER NORTHERLY WIND WAVES, TWO LONG PERIOD SWELLS
PASSED THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THEY HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MONDAY EVENING TO AROUND 16 SECONDS AND
WILL BE EVEN LESSER SO BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS REMAIN
MILD EARLY THIS COMING WEEK WITH BREEZY NORTHERLIES LIKELY TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A SUBTLE PULSE OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRIVEN THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH, ENHANCING SW FLOW AROUND IT. SOME CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOK VERY LIMITED, BUT
THIS SETUP CAN PRODUCE UNEXPECTED, POORLY MODELED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY VERY SMALL IN SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES (LESS THAN 5%). MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING DRY LOWER LEVELS, SO LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOT AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP A FEW DEGREES TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING A LASTING COOLING TREND ON
WEDNESDAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THE
DAY, YET WESTERLY UP VALLEY WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY IN LAKE AND SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
ON THURSDAY, THERE IS A ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITH ENHANCED
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW DAYTIME RH IN THE TEENS AND 20'S, ESPECIALLY
IN LAKE AND TRINITY COUNTIES.
BEACH HAZARDS
BUOYS ARE PICKING UP ON A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL. THE SMALL SWELL IS MIXING IN WITH SHORTER PERIOD SURF ON
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES, BUT MAY STILL POSE A RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES. SNEAKER WAVES ARE A UNIQUE HAZARD, WITH MANY
MINUTES BETWEEN WAVES. PAY ATTENTION AND STAY ABOVE THE HIGH WATER
LINE AND ANY WET SAND TO STAY SAFE. IF THE GROUND IS WET, WAVES
HAVE SURGED THERE RECENTLY. STAY SAFE AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON
THE OCEAN!
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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