030
FXUS66 KEKA 142150
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
250 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECLINE AS GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS HELP PULL IN COOLER MARINE AIR FRIDAY. COOL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
WETTING RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW FULLY BROKEN DOWN
WITH A DEEP WAVE TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINNING TO EFFECT THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BUILT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG NEAR COASTAL RIDGES AND
SOUTH INTO LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE
REACHED JUST SHY OF 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
HELPED PULL MORE MARINE INFLUENCE INLAND, FURTHER COOLING AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THE TROUGHS INFLUENCE WILL
ONLY STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MIDLEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA AND HIGHS PULLING BACK FURTHER BELOW 90 FOR THE
INTERIOR. ALONG THE COAST, THE MARINE LAYER WILL PERSIST AND DEEPEN,
GENERALLY ENHANCING COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS.
THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A PLUME OF
MOISTURE REMINISCENT OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEP
TROUGH (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1 TO 1.5 INCHES), BUT THERE IS MUCH LESS
CERTAINTY REGARDING EITHER INSTABILITY OR LIFT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
RAIN. CURRENTLY, THERE REMAINS A WIDE RANGE IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH
THE CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY AND DUE
TO SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN TRINITY COUNTY. ABOUT 80% OF MODELS
SHOW AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN IN CRESCENT CITY ON SATURDAY WITH
NEARLY 60% SHOWING EVEN WETTING RAIN. THOSE CHANCES FALL RAPIDLY
FURTHER SOUTH IN EUREKA WHERE THERE IS ONLY A 40% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN. RAIN IN THE INTERIOR WOULD LIKELY FALL IN SHOWERS
OVER HIGH TERRAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAIRLY WET WITH ABOUT A 30% CHANCE WETTING
RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR TRINITY COUNTY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
LESS SATURDAY (LESS THAN 15%) BUT INCREASES SUNDAY (25% CHANCE) AS
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL
FOR WETTING RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. /JHW
AVIATION
STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS HAS
LIFTED AND CONTINUES TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DESTABILIZE THE MARINE LAYER. EXPECT
FLUCTUATIONS IN CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH COAST, BUT MAINLY BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS. MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, INCLUDING KUKI. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM 14/21Z TO AT LEAST 15/03Z
FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS.
/ZVS
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS, BUT LIGHT TO GENTLE PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND AROUND PT ST GEORGE.
ISOLATED GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 9 FEET OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AROUND 3
FEET AT 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
SUBSIDE TO 2 FEET AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, A MID-
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WILL PEAK TO AROUND 5-6 FEET AT 10 SECOND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BUILT IN TODAY AS A
STRONG MARINE PUSH BEGINS. GUSTS HAVE REACHED AROUND 25 MPH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH MARINE
AIR HAS FURTHER COOLED AND MOISTENED CONDITIONS, FIRE DANGER REMAINS
ELEVATED AS FUELS LAG BEHIND. THIS TREND WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED
TOMORROW WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. THANKFULLY, RH WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH RH STRUGGLING TO DROP MUCH BELOW 30 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WETTING RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST
(60% CHANCE) AND WET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY COUNTY
(30% CHANCE) THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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