120
FXUS66 KEKA 141903
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1203 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. A WARMING TREND RETURNS TO THE INTERIOR STARTING
MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PASSED OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED LEADING TO A
DRY DAY WITH SUN ATTEMPTING TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST. INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES
COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS SEEING HIGH 70'S TO
THE MID 80'S. WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AND EVENTUAL CLEARING
SKIES AT THE COAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE INTO THE MID TO HIGH
60'S. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN, BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP, MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS, AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NBM
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50-80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
25 MPH OVER THE EXPOSED RIDGES AND COASTAL HEADLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO, GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MONDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH THE DRIEST/WARMEST DAY MOST LIKELY ON
TUESDAY. BOTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL
NORTE. INTERIOR VALLEYS ARE FORECAST REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER
90'S BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA, WHICH COULD RETURN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. THE ARRANGEMENT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND THE LOW
OVER THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ARE BOTH UNCERTAIN, SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY IMPACTS. IF IT DOES END UP ON THE WETTER END (~25% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS), SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. STAY TUNED. JB
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH COAST
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK TO THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
ABOVE IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT (PROBABILITIES: 30% MVFR, 50% VFR. BREEZY
NORTHERLIES WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN THE MARINE LAYER
RETURNING TONIGHT, YET ADDED AMBIENT MOISTURE ON THE SURFACE WILL
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO RADIATION FOG ALONG THE SURFACE IF THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. INLAND, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FROM THE WNW WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS CREATED A CONTINUATION FOR
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR
AND SATELLITE DATA REPORTS LIGHTNING ALREADY OFF THE COAST OF CAPE
BLANCO, WHICH COULD MIGRATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE BREEZES WITH SMALL WIND WAVES. A NW SWELL
OF 5FT@12S WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
RETURNS BEGINNING MONDAY. STRONG WINDS AND STEEP WIND WAVES HAVE
CALLED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND ARE TO BACK DOWN TUESDAY. CONDITIONS AT THE
END OF THIS COMING WORK WEEK ARE FORECAST TO HAVE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND LARGE WIND WAVES, BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
EXTENT OF THE WIND SPEED AS OF RIGHT NOW. MORE TO COME.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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