636  
FXUS66 KEKA 012126  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
226 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
A MODERATE MID PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO  
BRING A RISK FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.  
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT  
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WINDING DOWN ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS  
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY HAS BEEN LIGHT AND SCATTERED  
ACROSS MOSTLY INTERIOR MENDOCINO, LAKE AND TRINITY. WAVY BOUNDARY  
NOTED ON RADAR OFFSHORE MAY GENERATE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT. OTHERWISE, CAMS AND GLOBAL  
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH REDUCED PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SOUTH  
AND SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN MAY YIELD A FEW  
HUNDREDTHS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER.  
 
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OFFSHORE NW OF WASHINGTON WILL DIG SOUTHWARD  
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST  
AREA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT, 500MB TEMPS  
NEAR -20C, WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES. GREATER AND PERHAPS  
DEEPER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.  
CAMS INDICATES THE BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR FORCED BY  
TERRAIN. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU  
NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN. OVERALL NOT  
MUCH WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE ARE FEW HREF  
MEMBERS THAT INDICATE ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS AROUND THE  
PERIPHERY OF TRINITY, MENDOCINO AND LAKE.  
 
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY, LEAVING  
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SOME  
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WRAP AROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN TRINITY, EASTERN MENDO, NORTHERN LAKE AND  
PERHAPS OVER THE ALPS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY AND POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTHERLIES ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL HIGH TERRAIN BY SUN.  
DRYING OFFSHORE WILL YIELD CLEARER SKIES, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL  
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS  
REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBLILITY AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN. IF  
SKIES REMAINS CLEAR ALL NIGHT, FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN  
THE COLDER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
MUCH GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CROPS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW DIMINISHING. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY  
DEVELOP. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG.  
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...(18ZTAFS)  
GENERALLY, CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR  
THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, MORE  
TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO  
THE NORTH COAST WILL BRING IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING  
WHICH ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED IN KCEC. THERE STILL COULD BE  
SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD  
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE  
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS MORE LIKELY FOR INLAND TERMINALS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
LINGERING SHOWERS AND GUSTS OVER 20 KTS CONTINUE TO  
DWINDLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A MID PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO  
QUICKLY BUILD OVER 12 FEET AND RETURN STEEP SEA CONDITIONS TO ALL  
WATERS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY GENTLE WEDNESDAY.  
 
JUST IN TIME FOR THE SWELL TO DECAY ON THURSDAY, MODERATE, NORTHERLY  
WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS  
WHERE NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY JUST DOWNWIND OF  
CAPE MENDOCINO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE ON  
FRIDAY WITH STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS IN ALL WATERS HEADING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. /JHW  
 
 
   
BEACH HAZARDS  
A STEEP, MID PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MAY BRING  
SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO AREA BEACHES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY. WHILE THE SWELL WILL ONLY BE AROUND 14 FEET AT 14  
SECONDS (PRODUCING A BEACH RUN UP NO MORE THAN ABOUT 18 FEET), THIS  
WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST SWELLS OF THE SEASON. THIS MEANS MOST AREA  
BEACHES HAVE A STEEPER GRADE THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE SUMMER, WHICH  
MAY MAKE WAVES ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AND UNEXPECTED. TAKE EXTRA CARE  
IF ON LOCAL BEACHES THIS WEEK. /JHW  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
HIGH HUMIDITY, BREEZY WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN  
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWER DAYTIME  
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS  
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH MORE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE  
PROBABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNS OF SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL  
DEVELOPING FOR COASTAL AREAS. ERC'S INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. NORTH OPS GACC  
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK REMAINS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA  
IN THE LITTLE TO NO RISK CATEGORY EXCEPT ALONG THE EDGES WITH THE  
SACRAMENTO VALLEY.  
 
 
 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
CAZ101-103-104.  
 
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450-455-  
470-475.  
 
 
 
 
 
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN  
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.  
 
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HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG  
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