016  
FXUS66 KEKA 020734  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
1234 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES ALONG BEACHES CONTINUES TODAY.  
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY  
BEFORE WINDING DOWN ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THIS  
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY EASED OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS  
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OFFSHORE NW OF  
WASHINGTON DIGS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT, 500MB TEMPS  
NEAR -20C, WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO  
GREATER RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING INTO  
THE AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE LARGELY INDICATING THE BULK OF SHOWER  
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR FORCED BY TERRAIN, BUT ARE SURPRISINGLY  
INDECISIVE ON WHAT AREAS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY. SOME  
MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVITY IN INTERIOR HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY AND SOME  
HAVE MORE ACTIVITY IN LAKE AND MENDOCINO. REGARDLESS, SPOTTY LIGHT  
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL  
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN. OVERALL NOT MUCH WIDESPREAD RAIN IS  
ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE ARE FEW HREF MEMBERS THAT INDICATE ISOLATED  
HEAVIER AMOUNTS (0.25 INCH OR MORE) AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF  
TRINITY, MENDOCINO AND LAKE.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY,  
LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.  
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WRAP AROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN TRINITY, EASTERN MENDO, NORTHERN LAKE  
AND PERHAPS OVER THE ALPS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY AND POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTHERLIES ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL HIGH TERRAIN BY SUN.  
 
DRYING OFFSHORE WIND WILL YIELD CLEARER SKIES, ESPECIALLY FOR  
COASTAL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR  
VALLEYS REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBLILITY AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF  
RAIN. IF SKIES REMAINS CLEAR ALL NIGHT, FROST OR FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NBM IS  
SHOWING AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW 37 DEGREES  
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE COLDEST VALLEYS (HAYFORK, RUTH,  
LARABEE VALLEY). CHANCES RISE TO AROUND 50% FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY  
MORNING. RAIN TODAY WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS OR  
FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER THE CHANCES OF FROST. STILL, WITH  
SUCH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS, THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.  
 
MUCH GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CROPS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW DIMINISHING. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY  
DEVELOP. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS  
AND FOG. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...06Z TAF
 
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED WITH  
ONLY ISOLATED LINGER SHOWERS. FRESH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LINGER  
INSTABILITY HAS CREATED GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH  
INCONSISTENT CEILINGS AROUND 3 KFT ALONG THE COAST AND IN INLAND  
VALLEYS. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL (35% CHANCE) THAT CEILINGS WILL  
LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ANY CEILINGS PRESENT AROUND  
SUNRISE WILL MOST LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH HE DAY FRIDAY AS  
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TRY TO PUSH CLOUDS LOWER. THERE IS HIGHER  
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY  
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED MARINE LAYER POSSIBLY  
BRINGING ISOLATED IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE NIGHT. /JHW  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED  
OVERNIGHT WITH FEW GUSTS EVEN OVER 10 KTS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS  
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN JUST A COUPLE FEET. THAT SAID, SEAS HAVE  
REMAINED STEEP DUE TO A MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 14 FEET.  
THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH WAVE  
HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW 10 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
JUST AS THE SWELL DECAYS, GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN  
NORTHERLY. NORTHERLY WIND WILL FIRST INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS  
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO DURING THE DAY  
FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS BY  
SATURDAY GENERATING STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVER 6 FEET. THERE IS  
SOME POTENTIAL (40% CHANCE) FOR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AROUND SUNDAY  
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /JHW  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
HIGH HUMIDITY, BREEZY WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN  
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWER DAYTIME  
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS  
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH MORE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE  
PROBABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNS OF SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL  
DEVELOPING FOR COASTAL AREAS. ERC'S INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. NORTH OPS GACC  
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK REMAINS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA  
IN THE LITTLE TO NO RISK CATEGORY EXCEPT ALONG THE EDGES WITH THE  
SACRAMENTO VALLEY.  
 

 
   
BEACH HAZARDS
 
S STEEP MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY  
AROUND 14 FEET AT 14 SECONDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SWELL IS ONLY PRODUCING BEACH RUN UP TO AROUND  
18 FEET, THIS IS ONE OF THE FIRST SWELLS OF THE SEASON. THIS MEANS  
MOST AREAS BEACHES HAVE A STEEPER GRADE THAT HAVE FORMED OVER THE  
SUMMER, WHICH CAN MAKE WAVES ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AND UNEXPECTED.  
TAKE EXTRA CARE IF ON LOCAL BEACHES THIS WEEK. /JHW  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-  
103-104.  
 
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
PZZ450-455-470-475.  
 

 
 

 
 
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN  
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.  
 
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