628  
FXUS66 KEKA 030549  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
1049 PM PDT THU OCT 2 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR ONE FINAL DAY  
WEDNESDAY EVEN AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS  
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WEAK DIURNAL  
MARINE LAYER RIGHT ALONG SHORE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
AFTER SEVERAL OF PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS  
CROSSING THE AREA, THE FINAL COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY CROSSED THE  
COAST AND WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE INTERIOR BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE  
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. IN AGGREGATE, GENERALLY  
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LAST 3 TO 4  
DAYS WITH 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN EVEN FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN MOST PARTS OF  
THE AREA IN LAKE COUNTY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
THE BACK END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA  
FRIDAY, GENERALLY KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND MOIST DESPITE CLEARING  
SKIES WITH INTERIOR HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY IN THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING ALONG SHORE WILL CONTRAST WITH THE TROUGH, HELPING TO  
CREATE CONSISTENT NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITH  
SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS. INCREASING  
STABILITY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A LOWER, RAGGED MARINE LAYER  
IN COMPARISON TO THE HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTH WIND NEAR SHORE  
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH PUSHING INTO SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON,  
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MENDOCINO COAST. OTHERWISE, INTERIOR CONDITIONS  
WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND DRY OUT WITH INTERIOR VALLEY HIGHS RETURNING  
TO THE MID 80S. THAT SAID, INCREASINGLY SHORT DAYS WILL LIMIT THE  
POTENTIAL HIGH END OF WARMING. COASTAL WEATHER WILL COME TO BE  
CONTROLLED MOSTLY BY WEAK, DIURNAL MARINE INFLUENCE.  
 
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE  
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE INTERIOR WILL  
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM AND CLEAR WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN  
DIURNAL NORTH WINDS EARLY IN THE WEEK. A BURST OF OFFSHORE FLOW MAY  
WEAKEN MARINE INFLUENCE FOR THE COAST AROUND MONDAY AN GENERALLY  
INCREASE HIGHS, BUT OTHERWISE, A REGULAR DIURNAL MARINE PATTERN WILL  
PERSIST. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE OF SOME KIND  
WILL IMPACT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM,  
HOWEVER, IS VARIABLE WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY BUT  
ABOUT 30% SHOWING LIGHT WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL. /JHW  
 
 
   
AVIATION...(6Z TAFS)  
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY BEGAN TO TAPER OFF  
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO TRINITY COUNTY  
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE  
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS  
BEING OBSERVED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, WHICH MAY KEEP CEILINGS  
ELEVATED (MVFR) THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME BRIEF SCATTERING  
OR CLEARING ALONG THE COAST IS POSSIBLE TOO. SKIES ARE LIKELY TO  
CLEAR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. BREEZY  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT CEC  
WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 20 KTS. HREF IS SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES  
FOR STRATUS TO RETURN IN THE EVENING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ACV. JB  
 
 
   
MARINE  
COMBINED SEAS HAVE FINALLY DIPPED BELOW 10 FT ACROSS THE  
WATERS AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. NORTHERLIES FILL BACK IN TODAY WITH  
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER WATERS  
AND NEARSHORE MENDOCINO. WINDS NUDGE FURTHER UPWARD SATURDAY,  
BRINGING LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WATERS IN THE LEE OF CAPE  
MENDOCINO. PEAK GUSTS ELSEWHERE RANGE FROM 20-30 KTS. GALE POTENTIAL  
EXPANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH NBM SHOWING A 30-50% CHANCE  
FOR GALES, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL  
DOMINATE THE SEA STATE, WITH STEEP WAVES OF UP TO 7-9 FT CURRENTLY  
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE INTO THE INNER  
WATERS, EVEN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS BY LATE  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO EASE. JB  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
WETTING RAIN SHOWERS ARE FINALLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS  
THE AREA. STILL COOL, BUT MUCH CLEARER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL  
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY  
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW ELEVATION HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 80S AND  
DAYTIME RH DRYING TO BELOW 30 PERCENT. THERMAL BELTS WILL ALSO  
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING VERY HIGH OVERNIGHT RH  
RECOVERIES IN VALLEYS BUT GREATLY DRYING OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS AT  
UPPER AND MIDSLOPES WITH OVERNIGHT RH BELOW 40 PERCENT BY EARLY  
MONDAY. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE VERY GENTLE AND TERRAIN DRIVEN, WITH A  
NOTABLE EXCEPTION AROUND MONDAY WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST  
FLOW GUSTING OVER 20 MPH SHOULD BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK. /JHW  
 
 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...  
NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY  
FOR PZZ455.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR  
PZZ470.  
 
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR  
PZZ470.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY  
FOR PZZ475.  
 
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING  
FOR PZZ475.  
 
 
 
 
 
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN  
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.  
 
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION  
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG  
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