214  
FXUS66 KEKA 041945  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
1245 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.  
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH  
APPROACHES THE REGION.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
RIDGING ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE  
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM LAST WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BE  
CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR, GIVING WAY TO CALMER WEATHER THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE  
IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA SUNDAY NIGHT.  
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO FORCE OFFSHORE WINDS LEADING TO WARMER  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST. CURRENT MODEL  
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN CRESCENT CITY, HUMBOLDT BAY,  
AND FORT BRAGG REACHING OVER 70F, DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE  
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE AND AN REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT FOR RIGHT  
NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK FOR NW  
CALIFORNIA.  
 
THE CALMER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL, CUT-  
OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FIND ITS WAY INTO THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE  
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH PREDICTING THIS LOW  
TO BE PRESENT OFF THE PACNW COAST AROUND THE 9TH OR 10TH. ENSEMBLE  
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW MATERIALIZING (89%),  
YET THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS  
POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHERE IS CUT-OFF LOW WANDERS, EXPECT AND  
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS COMING WORK WEEK. NBM DATA SHOWS  
ABOUT A 50% PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN (>=0.1") FOR NW  
CALIFORNIA WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT  
COUNTIES. IF THE CUT-OFF LOW SOLUTION DEVELOPS, THE UPPER LEVELS MAY  
BE QUITE COLD RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS SYSTEM IS 6-7  
DAYS OUT, MORE UPDATES TO COME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY THIS  
COMING WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...18Z TAFS  
VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED MIDDAY SATURDAY. A  
BAND OF MARINE STRATUS LURKS OVER THE WATERS OFF THE HUMBOLDT COAST.  
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS MIXED WHETHER THIS THIS STAYS JUST OFF  
OF THE ACV TERMINAL OR BRUSHES OVER IT. TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS  
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ACV. THIS WILL BE THE  
PATTERN OVERNIGHT, WITH NO SOLID AGREEMENT OF THE DURATION OR  
COVERAGE OF COASTAL STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE LIGHT, DRYING  
OFFSHORE WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP.  
 
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT  
ACV, PROBABILITIES ARE ON THE LOW TO MODERATE SIDE FOR ADDITIONAL  
OCCURRENCES (40%). THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES (75%) FOR IFR CEILINGS  
UP TO EEL RIVER DELTA THROUGH THE FORTUNA TERMINAL. CLEARING  
WILL QUICKLY OCCUR BY 18Z OR SOONER.  
 
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. FORT  
BRAGG HAS A 30% SHOT AT MVFR CEILINGS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z,  
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED QUICKLY BY 18Z. JJW  
 
 
   
MARINE  
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. GALE  
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND AND SOUTH OF  
CAPE MENDOCINO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD GALE CONDITIONS INTO THE  
NORTHER OUT WATERS STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STEEP, WIND DRIVEN  
SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL REMAIN IN THE WATERS INTO MONDAY. PROPAGATION OF  
STEEP SEAS OF 7 FT WILL BE LIKELY INTO THE NORTHERN INNER ZONE 450  
PERIODICALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE  
SOME PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, AND A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS ZONE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL  
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AS DRY OFFSHORE  
WINDS FORM INLAND. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND  
GREATLY EASE WINDS DOWN TO A LIGHT BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES FROM  
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST  
TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. JJW  
 
 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...  
NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ450.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.  
 
 
 
 
 
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN  
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.  
 
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA  
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  
 
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION  
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG  
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