223  
FXUS66 KEKA 052016  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
116 PM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST  
COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER  
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST COAST AND WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE  
WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN  
IMPACT OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE TO ENHANCE OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRYING AT  
THE SURFACE. COASTAL CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE SCOURED OUT  
LEAVING WHAT SHOULD BE CLEAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY. WARMING ALOFT AS RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE  
PASSAGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME  
COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S, IF NOT A  
LITTLE WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. INTERIOR AREAS WILL REACH INTO THE  
80S AND COULD PUSH 90 DEGREES IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY HOTTER  
LOCATIONS. NONE OF THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO  
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL VERY WARM  
AFTER THE RECENTLY COOL PERIOD.  
 
THE NEXT WEATHER CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LOW TO CUT-  
OFF FROM THE FLOW OFF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST. GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO REMAIN SPLIT WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN 60% OF THE  
ENSEMBLES FAVORING THIS SOLUTION WHILE A LITTLE LESS THAN 40%  
INDICATE THE LOW MAY MOVE STRAIGHT DOWN THE COAST INSTEAD OF  
RETROGRADING TOWARD THE WEST OR WILL NOT BECOME A CLOSE LOW AT ALL  
AND REMAIN A TROUGH. REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN  
STARTING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SREF MODEL  
DATA HINTING AT A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS/NOTHERN CWA, ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER CLOSED-OFF  
LOW SOLUTIONS WIN OUT AND THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE  
REGION. /RPA  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
-NORTHEAST WIND ALOFT OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS LOW  
LEVEL WIND SHEAR 02Z-06Z MONDAY  
 
-VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS 24 HOUR 18Z PERIOD  
 
18Z TAFS...THE STRATUS CAME IN SHALLOW OVER THE HUMBOLDT  
BAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT QUICKLY CLEARED OUT. VFR VIS AND  
CIGS WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM  
INCREASING DRY OFFSHORE WINDS. HRRR HINTS AT SOME LOCALIZED TERRAIN  
ENHANCED STRATUS NEAR HUMBOLDT BAY MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE THINKING  
IS THAT WILL BE UNLIKELY DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED FROM  
THE OFFSHORE WINDS. THERE IS SOME LINGERING COASTAL STRATUS AROUND  
AND SOUTH OF THE FORT BRAGG REGION, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY STAY OVER  
THE OCEAN FOR THE MOST PART.  
 
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BE 30 TO 40 KTS FROM THE  
NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL. LOWER LEVEL SURFACE  
WINDS APART FORM THE RIDGES WILL BE LIGHT FORM THE NORTH OR  
VARIABLE, WITH UP TO A 60 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN DIRECTION. THE THREAT  
WILL BE FROM 02Z TO 6Z MONDAY. THE MAIN TAF TERMINAL UNDER THIS  
THREAT WILL BE AT CEC.  
 
JJW  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
NORTHERLY WINDS PEAKED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GALE  
CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST PART. AS THE NORTHERLIES CONTINUE  
DOWNWARD TODAY, SOME GALE STRENGTH GUSTS AND 10 FT SHORT PERIOD SEAS  
MAY BE FOUND IN THE FAR CORNERS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS OUT 50 TO 60  
NM THROUGH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONES WILL  
CONTINUE TO SEE 6-9 FT SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH  
MONDAY MORNING. INLAND EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPILL OUT  
INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS, AND TERRAIN CHANNELED AREAS WILL SEE UP  
TO 25KT GUSTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN LOCALIZED AREAS. WINDS AND  
SEAS WILL THEN DROP CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.  
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TRENDING STRONGER TUESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (UP  
TO 40%) FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30KT FOR THE OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
JJW  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...  
NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR  
PZZ450.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.  
 

 
 

 
 
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN  
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.  
 
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA  
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  
 
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION  
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG  
 
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