065  
FXUS66 KEKA 062112  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
212 PM PDT MON OCT 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE  
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES FROM AN  
APPROACHING TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK AND PARTICULARLY  
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO TREND COOLER.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
OFFSHORE FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES MONDAY, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER  
OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH,  
BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR RIDGES WILL BE BREEZY. ANOTHER MOSTLY  
CLOUDLESS, FULL SUNSHINE DAY FORECAST TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL  
TICK UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE COAST  
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHLTY LESS WARM THAN TODAY WITH THE WEAKER THERMAL  
TROUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA,  
WITH NO IMPACTS OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED CLOUDCOVER OVER  
LAKE COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY.  
 
A STRONGER NE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH  
EVOLUTION INTO A CLOSED LOW THURSDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD N CA.  
COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -25C AND MODEST SURFACE CAPE UPWARDS OF  
250 J/KG WITH THE LOW WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND  
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS LOW, EXACT  
RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE OVER  
THE KING RANGE, THE RIDGES OF HUMBOLDT AND MOST OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.  
NBM IS SHOWING MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS  
OVER 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS (40-60%). CHANCES FOR 72 HOUR RAINFALL  
OVER 2 INCHES IS STRONG, AROUND 70%. WHERE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS  
ARE CONCENTRATED IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SETUP. WHAT IS ALSO  
LOOKING INTERESTING IS THE MODEST SURFACE CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES  
THE SOUNDING ARE REVEALING, AND WITH A STRENGTHENED 250 AND 500 MB  
JET. THERE ARE HINTS OF A VEERING WIND PROFILE OVER THE OCEAN  
FRIDAY, AND THIS WOULD POINT TO A WATERSPOUT THREAT. THERE MAY BE  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT PUSHES SOMEWHAT INLAND, AND SOUNDINGS  
CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. A SLIGHT JOG NORTH OR SOUTH OF  
THE LOW WOULD CHANGE THIS FORECAST, SO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN  
DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS IN THE COMING DAYS. JJW  
 
 
   
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)  
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS  
BELOW 10KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL FORECAST  
AERODROMES. LOW POSSIBILITY (20% CHANCE) FOR SHALLOW MIST AND HAZE  
AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING NEARBY THE OCEAN. LIGHT EASTERLY  
BREEZES BY LATE EVENING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THAT POTENTIAL  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED  
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, SPECIFICALLY IN  
SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES. THESE POCKETS OF  
LIFR BURNED OFF QUICKLY. THE GRADUAL DRYING OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS  
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT YIELD MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THESE  
VALLEYS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
STEEP WIND WAVES HAVE EASED BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE  
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND  
STRONGER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NBM PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS  
OVER 30KT INCREASES TO 40-50% INITIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS  
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE 30 KT GUSTS WILL LIKELY (80% CHANCE) EXPAND  
INTO PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ON WED. PRIMARY AREA FOR THESE  
STRONGER CORRIDORS OF WINDS INSIDE 10NM WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE  
LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO (40-60% CHANCE) AND PERHAPS AROUND PT ST  
GEORGE (20% CHANCE) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH  
RESOLUTION MODELS MAY END UP COMING IN HOTTER AND HEAVIER WITH  
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW LOCALIZED GALE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE  
POSSIBLE. STEEP NORTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL ALSO REBUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT  
(SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS) BY WED AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME  
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.  
 
 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...  
NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN  
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.  
 
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HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  
 
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION  
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG  
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