682  
FXUS66 KEKA 162146  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
246 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BRING A RISK FOR  
SNEAKER WAVES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND  
WARMER THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A LOW END CHANCE  
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE  
TO START NEXT WEEK WHILE LARGER SURF MOVES IN.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES NOW  
THAT THE INTERIOR FOG HAS FADED. THE FOG DEVELOPMENT HELD UP THE  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS. SURFACE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT SOME  
MORE TODAY, SO FOG COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT  
WILL BRING SOME THIN MID TO HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY HAVE LIMITED INSULATING  
EFFECTS AND SOME PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN LOCALIZED COOLER  
VALLEYS.  
 
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS  
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WARMER VALLEYS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S  
BY SATURDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS SECTION BELOW FOR MORE  
INFORMATION ON THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT IF YOU HAVE BEACH PLANS.  
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD  
FRONT. FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL,  
THE FRONT DUE SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ON TODAY'S MODEL  
RUNS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LOW CHANCES (25-35%) FOR A  
WETTING RAINFALL (0.1 INCH OR HIGHER) FOR AREAS IN FAR NORTH  
HUMBOLDT THROUGH DEL NORTE.  
 
THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL  
CHANCES FOR SOME INLAND FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUIET AND BENIGN  
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 7  
DAYS. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO  
PERSISTENTLY PRESENT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN AROUND THE END  
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLINES NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA FOR A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK. JJW  
 
 
   
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)  
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT THE COASTAL  
TERMINALS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BUILDING AND SKIES CLEARING TO AT  
LEAST FEW OR SCATTERED GROUPS. CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 20Z  
WITH MOST OF THE DENSE COVER WELL OFFSHORE AND 20-30 MILES OFF OF  
MENDOCINO'S COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS PEAK AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING,  
MORE NOTICEABLY AT KCEC WITH ITS EXPOSURE TO THE PACIFIC (AROUND 10-  
11KTS GUSTING TO 15-17KTS). KACV HAS MORE COVER AND LESS EXPOSURE  
AND SO NORTHERLIES WILL INCREASE TO A LESSER EXTENT, 8-10KTS  
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 10-13KTS. CEILINGS WILL LINGER AROUND 11-17,000  
FEET TONIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV. NBM PROBABILITIES HINT AT A 38%  
PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS LESS THAN 6500 FEET FOR THE COASTAL  
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING,  
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR IFR LOW CEILINGS AT KACV  
AND KCEC. THIS WILL OCCUR AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIKELY  
RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN FOR KCEC AND LESS FOR KACV. KUKI WILL HAVE  
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS  
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF THE 40 LATITUDE. /EYS  
 
 
   
MARINE  
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK CLOSER TO THE  
COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO  
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE GUST CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND PERSIST  
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO,  
WHERE ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUST ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6-8 FEET THIS EVENING. THIS IS  
EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY AROUND 8-11 FEET AT 7-9 SECONDS. A LONG  
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVE AT 2-5 FEET AT 18-20 SECONDS FRIDAY  
EVENING , AND THEN PEAK TO 8-10 FEET AT 16 SECONDS SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF SOUTHERLY  
WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAIN  
UNCERTAIN, BUT MOST MODELS KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 20 KT. NORTHERLY  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT.  
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALES OR GALES AT SOME POINT  
ON MONDAY. /ZVS /MKK  
 
 
   
BEACH HAZARDS  
A LONG PERIOD WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO  
BUILD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20 SECOND PERIOD FORERUNNERS. THIS  
SWELL ENERGY WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES,  
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE INCOMING TIDE AND THROUGH  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SWELL CONTINUES BUILDING TO 8 TO 10  
FEET AT 16 SECONDS. SNEAKER WAVES ARE A UNIQUE HAZARD, WITH MANY  
MINUTES BETWEEN WAVES. PAY ATTENTION AND STAY ABOVE THE HIGH WATER  
LINE AND ANY WET SAND TO STAY SAFE. IF THE GROUND IS WET, WAVES  
HAVE SURGED THERE RECENTLY. STAY SAFE AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON  
THE OCEAN! A POTENTIALLY LARGER SWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE IN  
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. JJW  
 
 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH  
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.  
 
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-475.  
 
 
 
 
 
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN  
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.  
 
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