836
FXUS66 KEKA 170746
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1246 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COOLER WEATHER AND VERY LIGHT COASTAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WARMER WEATHER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING
TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE HOTTEST INTERIOR VALLEYS
REACHING NEAR 80. THAT SAID, DEWPOINTS HAVE STUBBORNLY REMAINED
NEAR 40, LARGELY PREVENTING OVERNIGHT FROST DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY
LONG NIGHTS AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW PROMOTE A
DIURNAL, COASTAL MARINE LAYER TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY FORM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL POOL IN COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR ALONGSIDE MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS. OVERALL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK, HOWEVER, MOST
LIKELY SUPPORTING ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2
INCHES IN DEL NORTE COUNTY WITH EVEN 50% OF MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
MORE THAN DRIZZLE THERE. LOOKING SOUTH CLOSER TO HUMBOLDT BAY, LESS
THAN 10% OF MODELS SHOW ANY WETTING RAIN. THIS FORECAST IS A GREAT
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EVEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
JUST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHT WARMING WILL MOST LIKELY QUICKLY
REASSERT ITSELF EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE
(30%) OF ANY HIGHS EVEN OVER 80. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
LONG RANGE FORECASTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THOUGH HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, NBM ALREADY
PLACES A 95% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ALL THE WAY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST WITH AN 80% CHANCE OF 3 DAY RAINFALL OVER 3 INCHES AND A 40%
CHANCE OF 3 DAY RAINFALL OVER 5 INCHES. SUCH AN EVENT WOULD LIKELY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND WITH SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAPABLE OF
MODERATE FLOOD IMPACTS. /JHW
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHWARD AT ALL TAFS TERMINALS. BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT OVER THE EXPOSED RIDGES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH ARE
LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES ALONG
MUCH THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY EVENING, SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCES SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE HUMBOLDT BAY AND
THEN EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW AT
5-10 KT AFTER 19Z ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY AT KCEC WHERE
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT UKI. /ZVS
MARINE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT,
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE OVER THE INNER WATERS. HOWEVER,
LIGHT SOUTHERLY REVERSAL NEARSHORE INTO FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS REPORT WIND WAVES BUILDING TO 6-8 FEET THIS
EVENING. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY AROUND 8-11 FEET AT 7-
9 SECONDS. A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVE AT 2-5 FEET AT 18-20
SECONDS FRIDAY EVENING , AND THEN PEAK TO 8-10 FEET AT 16 SECONDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF SOUTHERLY
WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, BUT MOST MODELS
KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 20 KT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR GALES OR GALES AT SOME POINT ON MONDAY. A LARGER LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 14 TO 19 FEET IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE BREAKERS FROM 18 TO 21 FEET SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING./ZVS&MKK
BEACH HAZARDS
A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING AT 2 TO 3 FEET AT 20 SECONDS, AND PEAK TO 8 TO
10 FEET AT 16 SECONDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH ENERGY SWELL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES, ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING ON SATURDAY. SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL
OF 5-8 FT AT 7-9 SECONDS MAY INITIALLY MITIGATE THE RISK DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. SNEAKER WAVES ARE A UNIQUE
HAZARD, WITH MANY MINUTES BETWEEN WAVES. PAY ATTENTION AND STAY
ABOVE THE HIGH WATER LINE AND ANY WET SAND TO STAY SAFE. IF THE
GROUND IS WET, WAVES HAVE SURGED THERE RECENTLY. STAY SAFE AND NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! A POTENTIALLY LARGER SWELL IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY./ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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