550
FXUS66 KEKA 190737
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1237 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL MARINE INFLUENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY RETURN EARLY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING
THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS SO FAR PULLED MARINE AIR INLAND. THE FRONT,
HOWEVER, HAS HAD SO LITTLE INSTABILITY THAT THE MARINE PUSH HAS
GENERALLY REINFORCED COASTAL FOG RATHER THAN MIXING IT OUT. LIGHT
COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING TIGHT ALONG THE COAST, BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) OF ANY WETTING RAIN ANYWHERE.
REGARDLESS OF RAIN, CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GREATLY ENHANCE WARMING AND
DRYING. THE HOTTEST INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOW DEWPOINT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY
AID IN FROST FORMATION MONDAY MORNING WITH A 40 TO 60% CHANCE OF
FROSTY CONDITIONS FOR TRINITY COUNTY AND EASTERN HUMBOLDT. FROST
CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY MID WEEK AND OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY AID IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE
COAST FOR THE START OF THE WEAK WITH MORE OF A MARINE LAYER LATER IN
THE WEEK.
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LONG RANGE FORECASTS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN
WOULD MOST LIKELY BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NBM
SHOWS ESSENTIALLY A 100% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ALL THE WAY ALONG
THE NORTH COAST WITH AN 70% CHANCE OF 3 DAY RAINFALL OVER 3 INCHES
AND A 25% CHANCE OF 3 DAY RAINFALL OVER 5 INCHES. DESPITE THESE HIGH
TOTALS FROM THE NBM, ENSEMBLE SPREADS REMAINS LARGE, INDICATING
GREAT POTENTIAL FOR LOWER END SCENARIOS TO STILL BE REALIZED. ON THE
VERY HIGH END, THERE ARE SOME OUTLIERS THAT SUGGEST A 10% CHANCE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 6 INCHES. EVEN WITH THE MOST LIKELY CASE SUCH AN
EVENT WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND (GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
AROUND SATURDAY) WITH SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAPABLE OF MODERATE
FLOOD IMPACTS. /JHW
AVIATION...19/06Z TAFS
PREVAILING LIFR CEILINGS AROUND 200
FEET WITH VARIATION OF VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/4SM FG AND P6SM ALONG
THE COAST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH VCSH TO -SHRA AFTER 10Z ALONG
THE COASTAL TERMINALS, PRIMARILILY IN KCEC. VFR CONDIONS ARE THEN
EXPECETD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NW
AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 18Z, INCREASING UP TO 15KT BY 20Z TO 02Z.
MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT UKI. WINDS BECOMING WNW AT 10
KTS BY 20Z TO 02Z, THEN BECOMING VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /ZVS
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EARLY MORNING, BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHERLIES. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 475.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRENGTHENED INTO MID NEXT
WEEK. THE NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THEREAFTER AS A STRONG
TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE VICINITY OF N CA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY IF THIS SYSTEM TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK. CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SUSTAINED GALE STRENGTH SOUTHERLIES AND
LARGE SURF CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODELED
POTENT NE PAC CYCLONES.
THE CURRENT NW SWELL AROUND 7 TO 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND LARGER SWELL MOVE IN LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONAL LARGE SWELLS ARE THEN LIKELY
THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK. /ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ475.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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