087
FXUS66 KEKA 131942
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1142 AM PST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO MAINLY HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
WIND SUNDAY AND OR MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA IS
CONTINUING TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHERN CA. MODELS SHOW THIS
LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW MOVES SOUTH
AND EXACTLY HOW CLOSE IT REMAINS TO THE COAST. CURRENTLY THE WINDS
ARE GUSTING FROM 30 TO 50 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES WITH SOME OF MOST EXPOSED AREAS REACHING 60 MPH.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WINDS ARE MORE LIKE 15 TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW
LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE AND THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE RAIN IS MAINLY OVER, BUT THERE
STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP QUICKLY IN THE
VALLEYS. ANY AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR AND THIS MAY INCLUDE THE
COAST, COULD SEE FROST SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
MUCH THINGS DRY OUT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN
AND INCREASED WINDS TO THE AREA. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
THE NBM SHOW WIDE VARIATIONS IN POTENTIAL AMOUNTS. THE 25TH
PERCENTILE SHOWS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM THE LESS THAN A 10TH OF AN
INCH TO BARELY A HALF IN THE NORTH. THE 75TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER
END RANGES FROM A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE
NORTH. THE MAX WIND GUSTS ALSO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AT THE 25TH
PERCENTILE TO OVER 40 MPH IN THE WINDY LOCATIONS AT THE 75TH
PERCENTILE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE A SHORT BREAK AND DRIER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MID TO LATE IN
THE WEEK. MKK
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY WITH CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. CIGS AND VIS ARE MOSTLY
VFR WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR DURING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS FROM 1500 TO
2000 FT AGL WILL BE UP TO 40 KTS UNTIL AFTER 10Z FRIDAY, AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE VCNTY
SHOWERS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 7 KTS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT IF WINDS DO WEAKEN OR
GO CALM, EVEN BRIEFLY, FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE
RECENT SURFACE MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY IN THE WIND PROTECTED INTERIOR VALLEYS.
MOSS GUIDANCE IS BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO TO 1500 FT AGL AT UKIAH
AFTER 9Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY ON THE LOWER SIDE (30%) FOR
THIS OCCURRENCE. HREF DOES HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT TIMES, BUT
IT MAY BE JUST TEMPO LOWERING. JJW
MARINE
STORM FORCE GUSTS HAVE ENDED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE WINDS HAS WEAKENED, BUT WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER AROUND THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS EXPIRE.
A LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS VERY QUICKLY BUILDING IN THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOCUSED FROM CAPE MENDOCINO AND SOUTH. COMBINED
SEA HEIGHTS IN THOSE ZONES WILL LIKELY SPIKE TO AROUND 19 FT LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED THE LOW FARTHER EAST, AND THIS WILL
KEEP GALE STRENGTH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER ZONES. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHER OUTER ZONE 470 HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL FURTHER DROP SATURDAY AS THE NORTHERLIES BEGIN THE STRENGTHEN
SOME.
A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY AROUND
ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. JJW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101>106.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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